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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

6/17T9:25 CSIQ

Stock: CSIQ

We got a buy signal on the daily and 60 min. charts yesterday at the close. The stock has successfully held its first test of the 20 day MA and that usually sets up the 1st good buying opportunity after a big initial run up. In addition, another leader in the space exploded higher yesterday, ENER. However, I only bought a 1/4 of the position for three reasons: There was no volume on the move up yesterday, the MACD histogram was less than ideal, and the market is on a sell signal so I want to reduce and long positions I take.

This morning the stock made a couple of positive announcements (see prior blog) and the stock is gaping up 9+%. What to do from here? I should double the position. I want to wait for the 1st hour to see how strong the reaction is and if it holds. Assuming it holds today's move would turn the MACD histogram positive and post a strong volume day reversing two of my three worries from yesterday. However, because the market is still negative i don't want a full position so doubling the position would establish a 1/2 total position which should be appropriate.\

10:53

I didn't add to the position at 10:30 because I don't like the overall market and would rather wait until the 12 - 2 pullback in this stock. In fact, if the market does not shape up I may not add to the position at all. The stock is now up 14% and if the market comes under fire I don't think this stock will run away. Don't forget this is the follow on move higher off of a huge run. If this was the initial breakout of the cup/handle base than we would need to be more aggressive, but follow on moves usually happen in a more orderly fashion and back and fill. Be patient and happy with gains already acquired.

11:32

I did something I never do; I sold CSIQ and booked a 13.22% gain. I don't like the action of the market & the stock is right at its old high and appears to be in need of a consolidation. So let's look for the pullback between 12 - 2 and perhaps reposition later.

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