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Information disseminated through the traditional financial news outlets is often subject to a hidden agenda. At best the information is misguided and at worst deliberately misleading. With a combined 60+ years of experience in the financial markets, we intend to help the reader separate fact from fiction and expose the news that actually moves markets.

If you don’t read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed.
–Mark Twain

RCM Manages the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds:

  • Fortune's Favor I (Long/Short US equity)
  • Fortune's Favor Offshore (offshore clients)
  • Fortune's Favor Precious Metals

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Time 4:04

Market Comments:

Markets close at the lows. I have put on a 1/2 of the market short. We have the sell signal but not aggressive so I don't want to add to the short until we see an alligator move.

Stock: GDX

I covered 1/2 of the GDX short because of the previously explained conditions (read last blog).
There was no real buy signal yet but it seems like the meat is off the bone. If we get a 60. min buy signal I will cover the rest.

Time 2:52

Stock: GDX, ETFs

GDX: Possible important note on the daily chart. Negative DMI is as high as it has been during this recent down trend. 2X the Neg. DMI hit these levels and both times it signaled the end of the impulse move down in the stock.

ETFs: QLD, SSO, DDM, don't add to short too quickly. We need a true impulse move lower to really get fully short. This may mean that we take the position into tomorrow with out finishing.

Time 2:30

Market Comment:

FED did what market expected. Short 1/4 of position. Wait until 3:00 before adding.

Stock: GDX, PWRD

GDX: FED move seems possibly gold bullish as there is no real talk of inflation fighting. Today is 1st day that GDX is out performing CEF. This change in behavior is important. Look to cover some of the short or all on a 60 min. buy signal.

PWRD: Don't add last $100k until last 10 min. of the day if the stock is going out at the high. Pay more you make more

Time 8:41

Market Comments:

OK so the GDP number was 1 tenth of a % better than expected and the futures are rallying. There is not a need for the market hedge until right before the FED announcement. I would expect the market to do well into the FED story. If I believe that the markets will ultimately top out after the FED story then it would follow that the markets would rally into the story.

Stock: PWRD

Great chart in the right space i.e. chinese internet and online gaming. The company just signed what looks like a major deal with INTC and a major chinese computer company. Major pennant breakout daily chart.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Time 4:20

Stocks: QLD, SSO, DDM

I began to place the hedge on by shorting these EFTs that represent 2x the market move.
I see an ultimate position size of 15,000 shares each or $1.2 mil = $2.4 mil exposure for each = $7.2 mil total exposure. I started tonight with a 1/6th position or 2500 shares because the Q1 GDP numbers are out at 8:30 tomorrow and I wanted some protection for what could be bad numbers that could begin to open the eyes of the market that no rate cut is negative.

Time 3:14

Market commentary:

Tomorrow we will get the FED results. How should we hedge the portfolio to deal with the reverse of what the street expects? Everyone is looking for 25 basis points and then comments of a pause in easing policy. Some even see no cut in rates. How will this effect the market?Everyone believes this will be good for the market. We need to hedge in case it turns out to be bad for the market. I believe anyone with a brain would see that not cutting rates would be an admission by the FED that rate cutting is not solving the problem. This should be viewed as negative for the markets eventhough the initial knee jerk reaction will be to think the FED is stopping the rate cutting cycle because the economy is better. I believe the big money that controls the markets will eventually view a stoppage of rate cuts as negative. Therefore, any rally on the news of no more rate cuts should be viewed with scepticism. In fact, the market may very well sell off immeidately on such news causing consternation for the talking heads on TV.

While the FED has been cutting rates:

LIBOR has continued to go up.
TED spread continues to widen.
Short term Muni bond paper has stopped rolling and individuals have been stuck with the paper.

Meanwhile:

The market averages have rallied right to their respective downtrends
Pshycological resistance has been hit. E.g. 1400 S&P 500, 13,000 Dow
All averages are still under 200day MA which defines a bear market

We need to set up a hedge to deal with these market ills. Before the FED results come out @ 2:00 tomorrow I want to put 1/3 of my hedge on. After the news I will add 1/3 after the 1st 15 or 30 minute reaction. If we are in the money at the close I will add the final 1/3 of the position.

Time 9:19

Stock: FCX

FCX: 60 min. will go negative this morning at the open. The next support is at the 20 day MA which is @ 110 a 5 point drop. The daily chart is still strong up but with the $15+ drop in gold and declines in all metals this morning I am concerned and feel we should error on the side of caution. I want to reduce the position 50% at the open and then decide on the rest by the close. Curiously the shares of SLT are higher at the open?

Monday, April 28, 2008

Time 11:33

Stocks: FDP, PCU, FCX, SLT, HES, GDX

FDP: Add 50% to the position on the next 60. min. buy signal

HES: Wait for 60 min. signal and add position

PCU, FCX, SLT: PCU EPS not good because of strikes and other Latin American problems. This is holding the stock back today. However, these problems are good for the overall industy and should add to the value of FCX SLT. So lets reduce our position in PCU and sell all if closes below 20 day MA @ 117.20 and add to FCX & SLT both of which have recently given 60 min. buy signals.

GDX: Want to stay short thru FED meeting on Wed. but 60 min. starting to look sold out maybe signalling rally comming. However, daily is still very negative so hold the line for now but look to reduce hedge in the near future.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Time 3:27

Stocks: GDX, FDP

GDX: Hold this hedge until we get a buy signal or at least a condolidation. We don't need to make money on this trade we just need to avoid big losses on CEF. FED meets next week and possibility of no rate hike will propel us$ higher so stay hedged until we get past that meeting.

FDP: Great weekly chart breakout. 60 min. and daily look good but real buy point is $38 so with the stock at $39.10 be patient and buy pullbacks on the bid. Fundamental story really good with a hugh blowout on EPS last quarter and the rising price of food around the world.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Time 2:31

Market Commentary:

Today's trading is counter to the current strong long term trends that are in place. the US$ is up vs all currencies and commodities are selling off. The markets are up led by the weak financial sectors and the leadership is taking a rest or up on light volume. Question: is this the start of a new trend or just a head fake. Answer: there has been know new evidence that any fundamentals have changed so I feel this is just the typical wild volatility that we must live with. Check 60 min. and daily charts for confirmation before making any moves. Be patient and add to the stocks that make it through this rattle.

Time 2:24

Trading Technique: Can't force it...

If I can't find an idea that fits my rules than don't force it and try to weaken t he rules. Just be patient the next great chart is right around the corner or the market is about to sell off cause no new leaders are emerging.

Stocks: TITN, CENX

TITN is hitting stop loss of $21.5 on volume. Selling 1/2 on VWAP to close holding 1/2 to see if it holds 50 day. This stock is very volitile and EPS are on Monday.

CENX is reversing and is right above stop loss of $68. EPS are in the next couple of days and I don't like the development of the chart on the volume sell off today.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Time 9:09

Market Comments: Following the LIBOR story...

WSJ reports the troubles of banks in Europe are pushing up an interest rate widely used in the U.S., prompting the idea of a U.S.-based alternative to that rate, known as the London interbank offered rate, or Libor. The problem: Payments on trillions of dollars in U.S. corporate and mortgage loans are set according to dollar Libor, but only three of the 16 banks that contribute their borrowing costs to calculate the rate are based in the U.S. That means the financial difficulties of European banks are having an outsized effect on U.S. borrowing costs, and could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring those borrowing costs down. European banks' "demand for dollar funding is likely to raise dollar Libor and result in higher borrowing costs for everyone from [General Electric Co.] to the average homeowner, even as the Fed is lowering the fed-funds rate further," says Scott Peng, an interest-rate strategist at Citigroup.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Time 10:26

Stocks: GDX, GLD, SLV

There is a major impulse sell signal on GLD, SLV, GDX. We can and should add to the hedge on the first rally on the 60 min. back up to resistance.

Trading Technique:

Once a stock is up 14% we look for the exits. As long as the stock continues higher it is OK to let it run, but when the 60 min. and daily sell signals go off together the momentum run is over and its time to take profits. If however, the stock is up 14% or there abouts and the 60 min. and daily look suspicious with the 60 min. definitely negative then we don't want to wait. Book the gains.

Time 9:38

Trading Technique:

Hedge back on for CEF. Short GDX, GLD, SLV. With gold and silver down 3% each this morning the chart is back on the negative path. We will now hold the hedge until the trend reverses. No emotion is allowed. With the hedge on our losses are capped and we can afford to wait for the reversal without fear.

Time 9:17

Market Comments:

Libor surges after scrutiny does, too - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports Libor took its largest jump since the advent of the credit crisis in a sign that banks could be responding to increasing concerns that the rate doesn't reflect their actual borrowing costs. Thursday's sudden jump in Libor comes after a decision Wednesday by the British Bankers' Association to speed up an inquiry into the daily borrowing rates that banks provide to establish the Libor rate. The move by the BBA, which oversees Libor, came amid concerns among bankers that their rivals were not reporting the high rates they were paying for short-term loans for fear of appearing desperate for cash. In a note to clients Thursday, UBS AG strategist William O'Donnell suggested that banks were responding to the heightened scrutiny, saying that the BBA's announcement of its inquiry was an attempt "to bring publicly posted rates back into line with the shadow interbank money rate market." If sustained, the jump could mean higher debt payments for homeowners, companies and others. Some expect Libor to increase further. William Porter, credit strategist at Credit Suisse, said he believes the three-month dollar rate is 0.4 percentage point below where it should be. That echoes the view of Scott Peng, a Citigroup analyst who said that Libor understated banks' true borrowing costs by as much as 0.3 percentage points.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Time 1:03

Stocks: CENX, SLT, TITN, SWC, FLR

CENX, SLT, TITN, SWC: Looking to add to these positions on 60 min. buy signal

FLR: Buy on next 60 min. buy signal. Stock is now back on top of key pivit point of $155

time 12:58

Trading Technique:

Never add to a position unless the 60. min. is giving a buy signal! This will help eliminate the tendency to add to a losing position on the way down. Adding on the way down is a purely egotistical trade. Do not trade ever on emotion. Be patient and wait to move when the momentum is in your favor. PAY MORE YOU WILL MAKE MORE MONEY.

Time 9:05

Stocks: FCX, PCU, SLT


Chilean strike drives copper to record - Globe and Mail
Globe and Mail reports copper hit a record high on Thursday on the back of a strike in Chile and tin also climbed to an all-time peak fuelled higher by supply concerns in Indonesia and China. Three-months copper hit a record high of $8,870 per ton, breaching its previous peak of $8,820 set in March. "The market has been aware of lower grades and production issues, principally because of water and energy, and if you add strikes to this then there is no chance that Chilean production is going to increase this year," said John Meyer, head of resources at Fairfax IS. "There are severe shortages on the horizon so copper over $10,000 per tonne is looking extremely likely," he said... "It is unlikely the supply side issues will disappear any time soon," Michael Jansen at JP Morgan said, adding the price looked likely to go higher.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Time 10:14

Stocks: QLD, SSO, DDM

MAJOR CORRECTION! This may not be the signal we want. All three stocks are under the 9 day ma. the real layup trade I'm looking for is a move like this today that takes the stocks above all MAs. I still think the market will hold these gains but we may not get the follow on trust up I'm looking for immediately. Stay tune will advise...

Let's track this signal and see if we can get a 5% move eventhought we are below the 9 day MA.
B QLD @ 72.87 (10:00) Target 76.51 (5%)
B SSO @ 68.68 " " 72.11 "
S DDM @ 74 " " 77.70 "

Time 10:05

Stocks: BIDU, SOHU, TITN

Time to add to these positions. All made it thru the sell off over the las tweek intact and are now giving a fresh 60 min. buy signal. I am taking up my positions to $750,000 for a full position. However, I don't like the volume action in TITN so we will stop at $600,000 today and watch for better volume action.

Time 9:36

Stocks: PCU, FCX, SLT, QLD, SSO, DDM

PCU, FCX, SLT: The copper stocks are all set on the dialy and 60 min. charts. Buy on a TWAP until 10:30. If the 60 min. is intact by then own the whole position.

QLD, SSO, DDM: The market trade looks like it is setting up again. We will wait for 10:30 before we buy the positions. All are giving 60 min. buy signals on the gap up. If the gap holds in the 1st hour the rally will be for real all day.

Market Comments:

Once again the market swings on "good news". JPM, WFC and INTC all had better than expected numbers. The inflation numbers continue to be good for the commodity sector and the dollar is getting killed. As GLD and SLV break above their respective 50 days ma we are releasing the hedge. I don't believe in this rally and think it is a bear market rally but I do not wantto short until we definitely enter a new down trend. I was right yesterday not to put on shorts yet eventhought it was very tempting. I would have made that bad trade last year. As I noted there was no volume selling in the last week sell off and so no distribution. That simple fact highlighted that the sell off was only a pullback. We need to wait for a difinitive downtrend to begin shorting again.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Time 11:39

Market comments:

The market is on a daily and 60 min. sell signal. This puts a moratorium on buying new or adding to positions. In fact, we need to seriously consider adding some short positions. The market avgs. are all up against their respective overheads and downtrends and are breaking the small uptrends they have been in since they have rallied off of the bottom of the channel. The only thing missing is a volume day to set up distribution. Look to add shorts in the financial sector first.

LEH, LAZ, JEF, GS, JPM, GFIG, MF

Time 10:13

Stocks: BIDU, GLD, SLV

BIDU: Add to stock on this 60. min buy signal at 10:30 if still strong

GLD, SLV: We want to hold this hedge until the stocks close the day above the 50 day ma. Don't get shaken out intra day, because this is a hedge, we want to error on the side of protecting the CEF position.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Time 11:05

Trading Technique:

After the market sells off and finds support we want to add to any position that held up during the sell off. Wait for the 60 min. buy signal and add to these RS strong positions.

So far on this sell off these stocks have held up: BIDU, SOHU, SWC, TITN, ATN

Time 9:32

Market Comments:

The G7 met and as I thought tried to talk up the dollar and metals were down until the Wachovia loss was revealed and it was worse than expected. So this week we have a real cross current, G7 intervention threat vs earnings disasters. Over 120 financials will be announci9ng EPS this week. I want to error on the side of caution with my Gold and Silver hedge. Try and forget about the possible news and just follow the charts. As long as GLD & SLV can't get above resistance and are on a 60 min. sell signal then we will remain in the position.

Bad Wachovia news but financials don't go down? The market open was quiet. Everyone calling for terrible EPS numbers. Question: is there to much pessimism right now? Watch how the markets respond to the bad news this could set up the next market move.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Time 11:32

Stocks: GLD, SLV

Gold and Silver are both giving strong 60 min. sell signals. They are both up against resistance of the 50 day ma and the 50% retracement lines where the stocks have failed 2x before in this current down trend. Fundamentally speaking the G7 are meeting this weekend and who knows what type of manipulation they dream up that hits the metals. We want to protect our CEF position during this current down trend, so every signal like this must respected. As long as the daily charts are on a negative signal we must error on the side of protection. Remember we hope to lose money on t he hedge cause that will mean we are up in the account.

Time 10:03

Stock:

PCLN

The stock is giving a strong 60 min. sell signal. If it is below 120 1/4 by 10:30 then sell. If it doesn't recover by the close then consider selling even if it is above 120 1/4.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Time 3:16

Stocks:

QLD, SSO, DDM

No surge materialized so we are out of the postitions. In retrospect I don't want to try this trade unless it is a real aggressive signal on all three positions. The easy money is just that; easy. If we are not in the money quick and up all day than the trade is not easy and therefore not the signal we want.

ATN

Remember, we are holding this stock until we get the sell signal on the daily chart and the 60 min. together.

Time 1:13

Stocks: QLD, DDM, SSO

We are not getting the thrust up that is required to make this buy signal legitiment. If the market does not surge into the close consider closing out the position and look to reestablish at a later time on a volume surge.

Time 11:41

Stocks: QLD, SSO, DDM

OK the trade is on. We have buy signals accross the board on all indecies on the 60 min. and the stocks are bouncing off the daily supports. Now we must use the 60 min. sell signal as our stop loss and get rid of all emotion. As long as the stocks follow thru we will hold looking for a 5% move higher at which point we will take the gain not waiting for a sell signal. Things happen overnight that can ruin a good market trade. No need to be greedy on this trade. We are just trying to pad the numbers.

Targets:

QLD = $80
DDM = $79.25
SSO = $73.50

Time 10:56

Trading Technique:

The market trade is turning up. If QLD,SSO,DDM are all giving buy signals by 11:30 than take the full position for a further rally. Note that the news continues to be bad and yet the market is shaking it off. Look for a 5% move higher on these index trades.

Time 9:04

Market commentary:


Rate of mortgage delinquencies rises - WSJ
WSJ reports even as federal and state govts come under growing pressure to respond to the mortgage crisis, new data show that the pace at which mortgages are going delinquent is speeding up. A new report by Equifax, the credit bureau, and Moody's Economy.com shows that 4.46% of mortgages were at least 30 days past due at the end of the first quarter, up from 3.98% in the fourth quarter and up 2.92% a year earlier. Delinquencies in the first quarter varied sharply by state, but were highest in Puerto Rico (8.03%), Florida (7.03%) and Nevada (6.59%.) The foreclosure rate, meanwhile, jumped to 1.39%, from 1.08% at the end of last year and 0.58% a year earlier. The increases in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures were the biggest since at least 2000, when the cos began collecting these data.

Conclusion: Between this story and the story from the last blog we clearly see the financial crisis and the lack of liquidity is alive and well. We need to begin establishing financial shorts again. Watch LEH, JEF, LAZ, GFIG, FCSX, MF.

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Time 3:50

Market Commentary:

FT reports money markets in the US and Europe are signalling renewed fears about the financial strength of banks, with key confidence barometers almost returning to the levels that preceded the collapse of Bear Stearns. The concerns are being highlighted by the difference between overnight lending rates set by central banks and three-month Libor, the rate at which banks lend to each other. This spread, known as the overnight index swap rate, has been rising in the US and remains elevated in Europe, indicating that banks are reluctant to lend to each other. "Libor is still dysfunctional and, for whatever reason, banks still appear unwilling to lend funds," said Dominic Konstam, head of interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse. The difference between the overnight central bank rates and three-month Libor was typically about 12 basis points before global credit turmoil grew worse last summer. In the US on Wednesday, that spread rose 2bp to 77.5bp. In the UK, the swap rate gained 2.45bp to 95.45bp on Wednesday. In Europe, the swap rate was up 1.29bp at 74.68bp.

Time: 10:45

Stock:

CRM: The stock has a great pattern but weak S/D rating of 77 and the breakout has failed. The stock has fallen right back into its base

Time 9:11

Market Comments: Don't Fight The Fed

This saying has been around for years and now I believe it requires full consideration. the Fed is not only cutting rates but again today the Fed announced more ways to save the credit markets and increase liquidity. This action should at the least put afloor in the market and at best fuel a rally. Commodities should continue to be king, even rice appears to be launching into rally the likes opf which has not been seen since 1972 -'74.

Continue to focus on commodities stocks and don't short.

The Wall Street Journal reports the Fedeal Reserve is considering contingency plans for expanding its lending power in the event its recent steps to unfreeze credit markets fail. Among the options: Having the Treasury borrow more money than it needs to fund the government and leave the proceeds on deposit at the Fed; issuing debt under the Fed's name rather than the Treasury's; and asking Congress for immediate authority for the Fed to pay interest on commercial-bank reserves instead of waiting until a previously enacted law permits it in 2011. No moves are imminent because the Fed still has plenty of balance sheet room for additional lending now. The internal discussions are part of a continuing effort at the Fed, similar to what is under way at foreign central banks, to determine its options if the credit crunch becomes even more severe. Fed officials believe the availability of such options largely eliminates the risk of exhausting its stockpile of Treasury bonds and thus losing its ability to backstop the financial system, as some on Wall Street fear. British and Swiss central banks also are contemplating contingency plans. For now, the European Central Bank is reluctant to consider options that require substantial modifications of its standard tools.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Time 3:04

Stocks: QLD, SSO, DDM

Get ready for another gimme trade from these market stocks. When the 60 min. gives a buy signal on all three at the same time we buy our whole position immediatley.

Time 2:48

Stocks: MELI, SLT

MELI: This stock has hit the 14% target. The stock is at the top of the uptrend channel and is right up against serious resistance at $45. Time to take a gain just waiting for the close.

SLT: The stock has set up a good double bottom and is giving the same type of signal it did last year that led to big gains in the stock. The S/D rating is very low but I have noticed that most foreign stocks have low S/D ratings and most ETFs have high S/D ratings. There must be a reason for this. Also the group, copper stocks, are breaking out, led by FCX & PCU both with high S/D ratings.

Follow up:

IMCL: We sold the stock for a small gain. See yesterdays blog. This sale turned out to be money good as the stock has broken down today. Well Done!

Time: 11:22

Stock: PCLN

The stock has given another 60 min. buy signal and has not violated stop so we will add to this position. I want to keep building the position every time a buy sig hits.

SOHU

Watch for the next buy signal. The stock found support on the uptrend and is setting up for another run

Monday, April 7, 2008

Time 12:51

Money Management

Refining our sell disipline: Once we have a stock up 14% we begin watching for sell signals. The primary indicator for this purpose is the DMI and ADX lines on the daily and 60 min. charts. When the daily positive DMI (green) line crosses below the ADX (white) line sell the stock. Use the 60 min to give early warning signs but this interval can be too sensitive and the real signal seems to be when both 60 and daily are turning together. Our object is to hold thru small sell offs but get out before big corrections.

Time 9:58

Stock: IMCL

Sell stock for a small gain of less than 1%. Stock was down on volume Friday, the S/D rating is a low 82 and we have held the stock for 4 days. Chart looks long in the tooth. On Friday the company got positive story fron Cowen but still struggled.

Stock: ATN

Stock has hit the initial target of 37.92 a 14% move. Now we must watch carefully for signs of weekness on the 60 min. chart and take gains if necessary. Remember we are in a bear market rally so expect reversals of breakouts and volitility. Don't be greed or fall in love with an idea.

Friday, April 4, 2008

Time 3:03

Stock: SWC

Buy sig clear on the daily chart but no volume. High S/D of 95 but 60 min looks suspect. Let's hold off on buying more until we see volume or the 60 min. reset.

Time 1:40

Money Management

Now is the time to work on defining our sell discipline.

1) Mental stop losses set up on all positions depending on entry point but never exceeding 8%.
2) On positions that become profitable we will rely on the original 14% gain as our trigger to begin looking for an exit. Over the years the average of a 14% move off of the buy signals seems to be the right starting point to look for weakness.
3) Watch the 60 min. chart for sell signals and act immediately

The market is currently on a buy signal and I would like to try and hold positions thru volitility as long as the new uptrend is intact. If at the end of a day the market breaks the uptrend on volume then we must take action quickly. The longer term picture of the market is still decidedly negative. This is a rally in a downtrend so the 1st sign of real weakness could lead to real trouble. Go to cash by the end of the day and we can always buy back positions if the market holds. We want to error on the side of protecting principal.

Time 8:58 - 9:39

Weak jobs data should lead to weaker US$ and stronger metals, but because metal charts look so bad lets hold half the hedge until we see marked improvement in the patterns.

GLD downtrend line crosses over at $90. A break above by the close would be cause for a cover.

SLV above down trend now and showing positive 60 min. momentum I.E .MACD histogram. Already covered hedge.

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Time: 4:02

Tomorrow @ 8:30 Jobs report out.

If stronger than expected look for strong US $ and weak Gold & Silver so hold hedge.
If weaker than cover Gold & Silver hedge quick.

Remember I am trying to protect the CEF position. I hope to lose money on the hedge. I will still make money if metals are stronger due to my other commodity positions. Error on the side of holding the hedge if action is not clear.

The charts of GLD and SLV are terrible. The uptrend has been broken, there are no signs of accumulation and certainlty no evidence of a bottom forming yet.

No idea how the markets will react if at all to the number. Try not to be shaken out of positions at this point. The market has followed thru and is on a buy signal. We will use individual stops at the end of the day to defend capital.

Time: 2:57

Trading Tech:

Stock: SWC

Buy sig on daily chart. Don't add to position yet due to the lack of volume on today's move and resistance at 17. I'd rather buy the last 20% of the position on the volume move above 17. I love the oxymoron PAY MORE FOR THE STOCK BECAUSE YOU WILL MAKE MORE MONEY.

Time: 1:16

Trading Tech.:

Stock: MELI

Good looking position with another 60 min. buy signal comming up, but with a RS of 68 and a weak weekly pattern I don't want to add to this position.

I added to my PCLN position this morning on the good 60 min. buy because I can't find a weakness in this idea.

IMCL does not have a high enough S/D rating. Use tight stop and look for exit on any rally for a quick gain.

Time: 11:34

Money Management:

Hedge metal positions in front of jobs report tomorrow. A somehow positive number as compared to perceptions will lead to further US$ rally and weak commodities. While I don't believe this will happen, our oversized position in commodities most notably the precious metals requires action to defend principal for the short term.

Trading Technique:

Only add to positions when the 60 min. charts give a buy signal

When the market goes against positions in the morning and we decide to hold thru the volitility, NEVER add to positions on the way down. It is important not to compound the pain. There is always time to add later. See the rule above.

Never cross your fingers remix...

For all my loyal readers I'm back and ready to continue the guided tour up the treacherous mountain path that is the US and global financial markets. As always I will focus on the US equity markets but in this ever expanding global environment I will occasionally take you abroad.

Like any mountain path there are dangers that threaten to knock us off the mountain and send us plumetting to our financial ruin. It is therefore our job to put in place measures of saftey that we adhear to at all times even when the path seems clear. We will call this Money Management or Protection of Principal. We must also be constantly on the lookout so as to avoid major pitfalls and uncover easier paths. This part of our task we will call our Trading Technique.

A reminder, this blog is as much for you the reader as it is for me the trader. You will get a unique look into the mind of a master "stock operator" (see the book 'Remenissence of a Stock Operator' for that reference) I will blog my basic market thoughts whenever necessary and I will highlight Rules as they become useful in real life situations.

Until next time I will leave you with this thought:

You've got to play tight but aggressive and I do mean aggressive, because it is a war and no one is taking prisioners.