6/30T2:14 Important News

TALKX Floor Talk: Rumors about troubled banks returning to the market
The major averages saw a fairly sharp pullback in the past half hour (Dow lost about 50 points over that time period), although they seem to be stabilizing right now. The likely reason for the sell-off was another rumor that a big investment bank was having liquidity issues, which was similar to the chatter that circulated last week. However, the muted impact to the major averages (relative to what they would have done 3-6 months ago) suggests that the market isn't quite buying into that type of rumor at this stage. The important thing to be aware of is that these "investment bank in trouble" rumors are starting to circulate on trading desks again, but that as of now, they're not having much of an impact.

6/30T11:25

Market comments: SPY, DIA, QQQQ are all giving 15 min. buy signals.

These signals are weak however, because there is no alligator developing. This is the last day of the month and quarter and I'm fearing a market rally for no other reason than the usual manipulation. If the 60 min charts looked even remotely capable of a real rally I'd look to go long the indices, but the 60 min.s have a lot of work to do.

At 11:30 everything is going contrary to the current trends. The averages are rallying up, gold and Silver are selling off, Oil has reversed lower and the US$ is moving higher. This all started when an economic number came out this morning better than expected, Chicago Purchase.

Also lots of talk of the DOW hitting the 20% sell off from the high of October. That fact triggers the Bear market rule. The markets immediately bounced off of that number. Classic volatility around perceived important numbers.

6/27T1:09 Rules of the Road update

Rules of the Road (Formerly known as Trading Technique): Day Trading...

1) Determine the direction we want to trade based on the daily charts. If the daily chart is positive than we only try day trades in the buy direction and vice verse.

2) Use the 60 min. chart to initiate the position. We must have all three indicators going in the same direction and at the beginning of the move in that direction.

3) Use the 15 min. chart to book gains. As soon as the 15 min. gives a signal contrary to the 60 min. then get out of the position.

4) When using 60 min. or 15 min. charts we must only make decisions at the end of the bar. We DO NOT react to the possibility of where we think the bar will end up. Only react to reality at the end of the bar.

6/27T8:46 co. in the News

Companies in the News:

Solar-cell spot pricing surges by over 10% in a month - DigiTimes
DigiTimes reports spot pricing for solar cells has surged by over 10% in a month with a premium of almost 20% over contract quotes. The upsurge is due to a rapid order pull-in from system maker wishing to enjoy the govt incentives offered in Spain before the program expires. Spot pricing per watt recently averaged at $3.50-3.60, up from $3.00-3.20 as recorded in the first quarter, according to sources at E-ton Solar Tech and Gintech Energy. Most solar-cell makers who inked contracts with customers last year, have agreed to quotes at $2.90-3.10, meaning spot quotes carry a premium of almost 20%. The sources at E-ton explained the soaring prices to booming demand, as many customers hope to take advantage of government subsidies in Spain prior to expiration of the program in September. Some customers have even been willing to procure solar cells at spot market prices, the sources noted. Sources at Gintech Energy added in saying that some customers still failed to obtain sufficient solar cells even though they were willing to pay premium prices. The tight supply is expected to ease after September. (Related stocks: JASO, CSUN, CSIQ, STP, YGE, LDK)

Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles - Daily Telgraph
Daily Telegraph reports Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm, warning that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall "below zero". "We're in a nasty environment," said Tim Bond, the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell. Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth." Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5% by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral. If it hesitates, the bond mkts will take matters into their own hands. "This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond.

Fed may give private equity more leeway to help banks - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports the Federal Reserve may soon make it easier for private-equity firms and others to invest in the nation's banks, according to people familiar with the matter. The changes could offer a lifeline to cash-strapped lenders desperate to secure capital. "This would be a bit of a sea change for the Fed," said Gregory Lyons, head of the financial-services practice at law firm Goodwin Procter. "A number of banks would love to access the private-equity pool. It's a clean slug of money." "We are looking at ways we can make those things more workable and gain from the experience we've had over the past few years," Federal Reserve general counsel Scott Alvarez said. Fed officials recently have met with big buyout firms -- including J.C. Flowers, Carlyle Group, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Warburg Pincus -- and banking lawyers to discuss the obstacles, according to people familiar with the matter. One of the banks that could benefit from looser rules is BankUnited Financial (BKUNA), currently seeking some $400 mln in capital. A number of private-equity firms approached the small lender earlier this year, but bank execs rejected their interest, says a person familiar with the situation. Some of these firms are probably still interested in the bank, and with other investors expressing reluctance about pumping more money into small and regional lenders, the Florida bank may welcome that interest.

6/26T 10:34 MFR Strategy

Rules of the Road: MFR Strategy

Due to Michele's constant question over the last 3 years, "when you are up in the morning why don't you ever sell and book the profit." I sold ATW this morning after a strong 2.5% rally off the open. The stock is now down 2 points from the sale price. Way to go Michele!

The reasons for the sale rest in the action of the market over all. ATW had a perfect daily chart, tight consolidation, great volume action in the handle, MACD and Stocastics in perfect order, S/D rating 83 (a little low), Composite rating 98, SMR A, and a 60 min. alligator buy signal on volume. This all led to the breakout today which has occurred on volume, but the market is imploding. The averages were down 1.5%+ and by 10:00 the sell off was getting worse. So, following the Jimminy Cricket advice of Michele, I decided to book the gain.

Going forward lets watch ATW closely. For the stock to be able to breakout this morning even with the market gaping down adds to my conviction that this stock is a really good trading idea. And it also adds verification to the buy signal program I have built. Even in an awful market the signal leads to a profitable trading opportunity. We need to remain strict to this system and at the same time have the confidence to buy a big enough position to impact the net worth in a meaningful way.

6/26T9:50 Co. in the News

Companies in the News:

JPM JP Morgan Chase is itching to pull the trigger on one more big bank purchase - NY Post (37.91 )
NY Post reports JPMorgan Chase is itching to pull the trigger on one more big bank purchase, even after it bagged Bear Stearns in a Federal Reserve-assisted buyout a month ago. The banking giant has compiled a wish list of coveted institutions, both struggling and strong, according to people familiar with the matter. Of top interest are WM and STI, both of which have already received close looks, according to sources. The list also includes, in order of appeal, PNC, WB and USB, sources said. JPMorgan is among a select number of financial institutions seeking to identify potential merger candidates. Others mulling tie-ups are WFC, PNC and US Bancorp. It's not clear if any formal discussions are underway, but casual CEO-level dialogues about partnerships and mergers have been increasing lately, bankers noted... Wall Street observers also say investment banks LEH, MER and even GS may have to purchase or merge with a commercial bank in order to ensure long-term access to the Federal Reserve for short-term borrowing. Sources say there is a concern that the newly created access that brokers now have to the Fed's discount window might be closed in the near future. That fear has increased speculation that the likes of Goldman Sachs could purchase a co like US Bancorp, or Merrill Lynch could link up with Wachovia. Even though the battle for target banks will take place among an elite few, the competition may also include the RY and STD.

Russia may buy gold using sovereign wealth funds, according to report - DJ
DJ reports Russia may consider buying gold with the resources held in its sovereign wealth funds, RIA Novosti reported citing Finance Ministry official Pyotr Kazakevich. "It's an interesting question, which is worth discussing, but it's important to be careful with precious metals, since this market has already risen a lot," said Kazakevich, who is deputy director of the Finance Ministry's international finance department.

6/25T2:22 Fed story

Fed Story: Just as we expected...

If you read the previous blog covering our expectations of the Fed announcement, you will see that the story today was just as we had outlined in the blog. There are no surprises here. So now the question is: How should we react?

Answer:

-Step one: Cover the hedge on our gold and silver positions. The expectations that the Fed will be raising rates is going to dissipate and that in conjunction with the ECB's desire to raise rates now should put a cap on the US$ and in fact send it lower. This will be good for all commodities.
-Step two: Use the ensuing rally to set up short positions. The Fed is now neutral and out of the picture for the moment. The market will swing with the data. What we should be able to do is use the charts with minimal interference from Fed manipulation for the time being. The daily charts on all three major indices are in the red zone so we need to short when the 60 min. gives the signal. Watch Out! The daily charts are way over sold and could lead to a rally that lasts for more than a couple of days. The thoughts above need to be executed over the comming weeks not days. Go slow!
- Step three: Use weakness in the markets to buy oil stocks. After we set up short positions and get the sell off we should use the weakness to buy energy names because commodities and in particular oil will rally on the back of a renewed weak US$

6/25T9:27 Gary's Word...

Gary's Word: Dow Chemical bombshell...

DOW Dow Chemical to raise prices by as much as 25% in July (37.62)DOW will raise the price of its products by as much as an additional 25% in July in an effort to offset the continuing rise in the cost of energy and hydrocarbon feedstocks. The company also will implement a freight surcharge of $300 per shipment by truck and $600 per shipment by rail, effective August 1. The surcharge applies to North America customers buying chemicals, hydrocarbons and plastics where Dow absorbs the freight currently. Later this year a freight surcharge will be implemented in other geographic regions as appropriate. Furthermore, the company is moving ahead with plans to temporarily idle or reduce production at a number of manufacturing plants. In addition, Dow Building Solutions temporarily idled 20% of its European capacity for producing STYROFOAM insulation.

Gary:

"Dow is a massive intermediate goods producer...all of its products are bought by cos which manufacture end products..working capital needs to finance inventories and work in process(remember your accounting) by end product producers will go thru the roof..commercial paper mkts are dysfuctional and the banking system is out of capital...therefore, end product cos will have to raise prices as fast as they can but will have no choice except to lower production(will only be able to finance smaller output) and dramatically accelerrate layoffs..all other cos will follow Dow's lead...Conclusion: Respect the weekly head and shoulders pattern of the DJI(S&P and NASDAQ have the same patterns) and plan for a mkt crash this summer...you asked me what are the easy calls today..as Sinclair would say "this is it"...I think you should consider publishing this thought process on NEVER CROSS YOUR FINGERS as it represents the very essence of that title.."

6/25T9:16 Co. in the News

Companies in the News:

HERO, HUN, PDE, RDC targets raised at Jefferies on better Gulf of Mexico jack-up outlook
Jefferies notes in a stark turnaround from six months ago, fundamentals in the Gulf of Mexico jack-up market have improved considerably. As such, they are increasing their price target and adjusting their ests for HERO, HUN, PDE and RDC to reflect higher forecasted rates in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico jack-up market and recent fleet updates. The firm raised their tgt on HERO to $43 from $35, HUN to $15 from $11, PDE to $54 from $50 and RDC to $51 from $44. ESV tgt and ests were also increased; see 9:04 comment.

ESV Ensco target raised to $85 at Jefferies (80.09 )
Jefferies rasied their tgt on ESV to $85 from $74. They say in a stark turnaround from six months ago, fundamentals in the GOM jack-up market have improved considerably. With dayrates in the GOM jack-up market already tracking almost $10-$15K/day above expectations, they are increasing their GOM jack-up dayrate assumptions as well.

Conclusion of iron ore talks between China and Australia may not have the impact on bulk shipping rates that it had in the past - SCMP.com
SCMP.com reports the conclusion of iron ore talks between China and Australia may not have the impact on bulk shipping rates that it had in the past, according to analysts. Previously, once miners and steel mills in China agreed on contracted iron ore prices, bulk shipping rates would increase 15-20%, said Karen Chan, a transport analyst at RCM. That was because mills would stop importing iron ore before the talks concluded and would rush to order after the new prices were fixed. However, Ms Chan said the impact on freight rates might not be as big this time because the nation and Brazil - the other big ore supplier - had concluded their talks on prices four months earlier. That allowed mainland iron ore traders to jump the gun and import huge amounts of ore in the past four months, betting on likely higher prices from Australia, she said.

6/24T12:06 US$ vs Gold

US$ vs. GOLD: Mixed signals...

The Fed meets today and tomorrow and I am feeling the need to hedge the CEF position.

If we take a long hard look at the US$ index we will have to admit that the momentum is positive. View the weekly chart of US$ index (0USDR) and you will see a clear positive trend in the MACD histogram as well as a breaking of the down trend in the stochastic. On the daily chart, you will see major positive volume in early June that would suggest a possible reversal is being attempted. A run up to the 200 day MA would not be out of the realm of possibility, bringing the index to $75+ and at the same time breaking the long term downtrend that crosses over at $74.5.

The question is: Will the Fed meeting produce enough positive news for the US$ to create this breaking of the downtrend? The US$ is in a technical position to allow it to move higher with ease, so I feel we need to be cautious. Meanwhile, we need to look at the charts of GLD and SLV to see if there is any warning signs.

Both charts gave a negative sell signal yesterday on the 60 min. charts. As for the daily charts at best we would call it neutral and in reality all but the MACD are negative and the MACD is neutral, could go either way. This picture leads me to believe that the assets could be vulnerable to a sell off back to their lows as the US$ rallies to the 200 day. I don't want to live through that at the end of the month and quarter. The prudent move is to hedge off the whole position until such time as the metals break their down trends (GLD above $90, SLV above $175) or the technical picture changes for the positive. I would also watch the US$ index for a breakdown below the 50 day ma @ $73 to warrant a cover of the hedge.

6/24T9:22 Co. in the News

Companies in the News:

SLW Silver Wheaton to raise up to CDN$136 million through offer to induce early exercise of publicly-traded warrants; names new CFO (13.37 )
Co announces that it has filed a preliminary prospectus in each of the provinces of Canada and a registration statement in the United States to qualify the distribution of approx 3 mln new common share purchase warrants to holders of two of its three series of publicly-traded warrants. If all existing warrants are exercised during the Early Exercise Period, SLW will receive gross proceeds of approx Cdn$136 mln on or before September 5, 2008. SLW also announces that Gary Brown has been appointed CFO of effective July 1, 2008.

ISIS ISIS Pharm and Genzyme complete licensing of mipomersen (14.03 )
The co and Genzyme (GENZ) announce the finalization of the license and collaboration agreement for mipomersen. The collaboration provides Genzyme with exclusive worldwide rights to mipomersen, a novel lipid-lowering drug discovered and developed by Isis that is in phase 3 clinical development. During the second half of this year, enrollment is expected to be completed in a pivotal study of mipomersen in homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, and a new trial in apheresis-eligible patients is expected to begin. As part of the agreement, Isis will receive a $175 mln license fee for mipomersen. The companies have updated the deal terms so that Isis will contribute up to $50 mln in additional development funding for mipomersen, bringing Isis' development funding commitment up to $125 mln. Thereafter Isis and Genzyme will share development costs equally. The initial Isis development funding commitment and the shared funding will end when the program is profitable. In exchange for this additional contribution, Isis has the opportunity to receive $75 mln in milestone payments early.

Bernanke plays 'dangerous game' balancing rate talk with action - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg.com reports Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, by voicing concern about inflation and the slumping dollar, has fanned investor expectations for an interest-rate increase as soon as August. Raising rates may exacerbate the economic slowdown and roil banks whose losses sent their stocks down the most in a decade this month. Forgoing a rate boost next quarter risks damaging the Fed's credibility and deepening its divisions. Already this year, three officials have dissented on rate decisions. While Bernanke's warning that the Fed will "strongly resist'' a jump in inflation expectations led traders to bet on a rate increase, economists are more skeptical. All 101 in a Bloomberg News survey said the Federal Open Market Committee will keep the benchmark rate unchanged tomorrow and most analysts this month predicted officials will stand pat until 2009... The Fed chief shifted stance after soaring costs of energy and imported goods threatened to stoke consumer price expectations.

6/23T2:18

Market Comments: Fed. meeting 24th / 25th

- We expect the Fed will be verbally strong on the need to fight inflation but will also reduce the likelihood of a rate hike anytime soon.
- The above stance will be bullish for gold and commodities in general / bearish for the US$. however the manipulators will do their best to hit gold before and even perhaps on the day of the statement to throw everyone off the scent.
- Long bond probably goes down on the news pushing long rates higher. This is of course counter intuitive
- Financial stocks have been killed heading into this meeting and will likely rally after as a perceived dovish stance will cause nervous shorts to cover. This short term rally should be used to add to shorts in this space as the problems continue to get worse.

The markets (QQQQ, SPY, DIA) are still in the middle of a daily sell signal, so any new positions should be from the short side. Rallies in the market should be viewed with a high degree of scepticism

6/23T9:14 Co. in the News

Companies in the News:

MYGN Myriad Genetics: Bapineuzumab not necessarily a positive signal for Flurizan - Cowen (50.37 )
Cowen says top-line results from the Flurizan U.S. Phase III Alzheimer's trial are expected to be released this week. With MYGN shares up 10% since the release of the bapineuzumab top-line Phase II results, they believe investors now are more optimistic about Flurizan's chances for success. Firm's analysis of the available clinical and pre-clinical data and checks with their clinical and statistical consultants lead them to conclude that the Phase III trial may show a positive treatment trend, but Flurizan is unlikely to achieve statistically significant efficacy. While MYGN shares could have as much as 30% upside potential should the Flurizan Phase III program succeed, firm believes that is a very low probability (<20%) outcome.

6/19T10:15 Co. in the News

Companies in the News:

China battles plunge in shares - FT
FT reports Chinese regulators have delayed approvals for initial public offerings and are exerting pressure on domestic fund managers and brokers to buy shares, while a range of other options to boost plummeting share prices is considered, market participants and regulatory officials have told the Financial Times. "Our unofficial bottom line right now is 2,000 points," one regulatory official admitted. "After that we will make some more serious recommendations to the central government to help support the market." Officials say the China Securities Regulatory Commission is under enormous pressure from senior govt leaders and the public to halt the steep slide in the stock market that has seen the benchmark index drop by more than half from its October peak. Despite years of market-based reforms, the CSRC is still expected to take responsibility for the performance of key stock indices, an expectation that is heightened each time it interferes in the market to boost or damp sentiment... The regulator is also close to permitting brokers to offer margin trading, allowing investors to buy stocks with money borrowed from their brokers -- a practice previously banned in China.

Rules of the Road: Update to the complete list of Rules: The Buy Side

In no particular order:
- S/D rating 85 or better preferably 95+. This rule can be ignored on certain ADRs
- 3 quarters of blow out growth in revenue and EPS. Preferably triple digit EPS numbers
- 60 min Alligator buy signal
- Daily Alligator buy signal
- Daily MACD histogram positive and/or in an uptrend
- Positive volume in the base and on the breakout
- Position size varies depending on market direction. If the market is in an uptrend then put on the full position, but if the market not then only put on a 50% position

6/18T3:04 Rules of the Road...

Rules of the Road (Formerly known as Trading Technique): Day Trading...

1) Determine the direction we want to trade based on the daily charts. If the daily chart is positive than we only try day trades in the buy direction and vice verse.

2) Use the 60 min. chart to initiate the position. We must have all three indicators going in the same direction and at the beginning of the move in that direction.

3) Use the 15 min. chart to book gains. As soon as the 15 min. gives a signal contrary to the 60 min. then get out of the position.

6/18T2:44

Stocks to Watch: USO, SOL

USO: Had a 7K gain but lost $ on trade. Stayed too long at the party. The 60. min day trade signals are only good for that 60 min. period. I need to book gains when the 15 imn. chart changes vs the 60 min.

SOL: Time to buy back this stock. The group is showing strong momentum eventhough the market is suffering. This stock has been held down because of the secondary. Today it was priced at $20.50. We want to buy today and hold the position as long as it holds the offering price of $20.50.

3:56

SOL Update: I sold the stock for a day trading gain. I don't like the way the market is closing and the 60 min. of SOL is not strong enough to warrent holding it over night with the weakness in the market. Let's look at the stock again tomorrow.

6/18T Hedge & USO

Hedge: SPY, DIA, QQQ

I got the short right yesterday after the close as we saw a perfect sell signal on the 60. min. that occurs in unison with the overall negative signals of the daily charts. This morning we saw bad EPS news from MS & FDX and a gap down opening. I have increased the positions 3 times and intend to continue building.

USO:

Inventories are out and the data is a non event. I am putting this short on just for today as a type of hedge for the market shorts. USO looks on the daily chart like momentum is really weak on the most recent run to new highs and I'm looking for the gap to close, bringing USO back to $104. If the stock clears $109.64 we need to cover.

P.S. WHO LOVES YOU...

6/18T8:46 Co. in the News

Companies in the News:

SOL ReneSola announces pricing of follow-on public offering of 9 mln shares @ $20.50 per ADS (20.77 )

6/17T9:25 CSIQ

Stock: CSIQ

We got a buy signal on the daily and 60 min. charts yesterday at the close. The stock has successfully held its first test of the 20 day MA and that usually sets up the 1st good buying opportunity after a big initial run up. In addition, another leader in the space exploded higher yesterday, ENER. However, I only bought a 1/4 of the position for three reasons: There was no volume on the move up yesterday, the MACD histogram was less than ideal, and the market is on a sell signal so I want to reduce and long positions I take.

This morning the stock made a couple of positive announcements (see prior blog) and the stock is gaping up 9+%. What to do from here? I should double the position. I want to wait for the 1st hour to see how strong the reaction is and if it holds. Assuming it holds today's move would turn the MACD histogram positive and post a strong volume day reversing two of my three worries from yesterday. However, because the market is still negative i don't want a full position so doubling the position would establish a 1/2 total position which should be appropriate.\

10:53

I didn't add to the position at 10:30 because I don't like the overall market and would rather wait until the 12 - 2 pullback in this stock. In fact, if the market does not shape up I may not add to the position at all. The stock is now up 14% and if the market comes under fire I don't think this stock will run away. Don't forget this is the follow on move higher off of a huge run. If this was the initial breakout of the cup/handle base than we would need to be more aggressive, but follow on moves usually happen in a more orderly fashion and back and fill. Be patient and happy with gains already acquired.

11:32

I did something I never do; I sold CSIQ and booked a 13.22% gain. I don't like the action of the market & the stock is right at its old high and appears to be in need of a consolidation. So let's look for the pullback between 12 - 2 and perhaps reposition later.

6/17T9:13 Co. in the News

Companies in the News...


CSIQ Canadian Solar raises annual guidance; sees revs of $750-870 mln up from $650-750 mln (39.00 ) -Update-
Co is raising its annual guidance for 2008 from 200 - 220 MW to 230 - 260 MW in output and its estimated annual revenue from $650 - $750 mln to $750 - $870 mln (consensus $836.06 mln). The co ests that it will ship approximately 10 - 12 MW of e-Modules to USA and South Korea in 2008, thus making these two countries significant markets for CSIQ... Based on robust market demand for our products, the Company plans to increase its annual ingot and wafer capacity from the previous target of 40 - 60 MW to 150 - 200 MW; to increase our internal cell capacity from the previous target of 250 MW to 400 MW and to increase module capacity to 800 MW. We expect to have the above new capacity fully commissioned at the beginning of 2009.

CSIQ Canadian Solar announces conversion rate for conversion offer for its 6.0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2017 (42.46 )
Co announces that the increased conversion rate for its 6.0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2017 in connection with its offer to convert such Notes has been determined to be 53.6061 common shares per $1,000 principal amount of the Notes. The conversion rate was previously 50.6073 common shares per $1,000 principal amount of the Notes. On May 27, 2008, co commenced an offer to holders of the Notes to convert their Notes into common shares at an increased conversion rate equal to the sum of (i) 50.6073 common shares plus (ii) $117.00 in the form of additional common shares at the daily volume-weighted average price of common shares for the ten trading days from and including June 3, 2008 to and including June 16, 2008.

6/16T2:06 Gold&Silver

Gold & Silver: To hedge or not to hedge...

I think the answer is to not to hedge at this time. Gold is up 1.3% and Silver is up 3.81% today. Over the last few months a big up move like this would be erased over the next day or two so a short of GDX would be appropriate. However, if we look at the daily charts of GLD and SLV we will see that the momentum is slowly but definitely shifting. The MACD histogram is showing dramatic improvement. Every sell off is accompanied by weaker and weaker momentum so that now any up move of more than a day should push the histogram back into positive territory. We are also getting a double bottom buy signal on the stochastic and the DMI is about to cross positive for GLD and already has as of today for SLV.

So, no hedging and perhaps look to add to the long side on 60 min. buy signals.

6/16T8:57 Co. in the News

Companies in the News:

Dry Bulk Shippers: DSX, DRYS, EXM ...

Jefferies believes dry bulk spot charter rates are likely to increase significantly from current levels during 2H08
Jefferies notes that last week, Capesize dry bulk spot charter rates declined significantly as the Chinese government formally ordered ports to clear excess iron ore stocks. While the successful implementation of the orders from Beijing could continue to have a negative impact on Capesize spot charter rates in the near-term, the firm believes dry bulk spot charter rates are likely to increase significantly from current levels during 2H08 as demand for iron ore remains strong and any de-stocking over the next few weeks will create pent-up demand for the commodity ahead of next year's annual contract price negotiations that begin in November 2008.


Dry-bulk yield spreads vs. T-notes indicate sell-off is overdone - Lazard
Lazard says spreads between dry bulk yields and Treasuries have expanded dramatically in a week. Certain dry bulk yield stocks, particularly GNK, EGLE, and DSX, have the majority of their operating days covered by sound contracts for 2008 with coverage into 2009. As well, the world economy, while dampened by inflation, is still creating dry bulk demand growth that exceeds the growth in supply of dry bulk ships through 2H09. While spreads may be deservedly wider due to global macro fears, firm believes investors have overestimated the risk. There will be dramatic volatility in dry bulk shares while the BDI comes down to reasonable levels, but they believe that dry bulk names with long-term contract cover have already been oversold in the meantime.


Friedman Billings notes WM,WB, WFC, CFC, DSL, and FED as having greatest exposure to Central California housing market
Friedman Billings took a tour of the hardest hit housing markets in Central California. Firm says the degree of the price declines in these markets was their biggest takeaway. Sacramento is by far the worst hit, and unfortunately, it is also the largest market visited. On a positive note, housing inventories are beginning to move across all the areas, but at prices 30%-70% below FY05 peak price levels. So on one hand, buyers are beginning to come back into the market, but at a substantial cost to the banking system. Firm's overall conclusion from the trip is that severity rates are greater than anticipated in the visited markets, which will remain an overhang on valuations for institutions with the largest exposures to the Central California housing market. The major banks and thrifts that have the greatest exposure to Central California are WM, WB, WFC, CFC, DSL, and FED.


SWKS Skyworks: Kaufman expects momentum to continue (10.61 )
Kaufman believes SWKS continues to see handset demand tracking as expected, with certain softer markets fluctuating week by week rather than showing any pronounced directional trend. Firm believes a relatively stable demand environment can enable SWKS to execute on its share gain opportunity. A key driver of momentum is the recently announced QCOM reference design, from which they expect rev contributions beginning in calendar 2009. Firm expects SWKS to broaden its customer footprint in the handset market with: 1) an expected greater than 10% rev contribution from nearly all the top-five handset OEMs by year-end, and 2) a strong smartphone and emerging market footprint.

6/13T2:27

Market Comments: Down Trend confirmed...

The markets are in a defined down trend on the daily charts and they are trading below key areas of resistance. So, our trading should be done on the short side only at this time. If we see 60 min. buy signals we must remember they are occuring in front of the negative backdrop. When we get sell signals on the 60 min. then we can participate on the short side because of the daily sell signal in place.

6/11T1:29 NSM

Stock: NSM

I sold the stock that I bought this morning after the 1st hr sell off. This was a positive trade and I am now going to wait for the close to reposition if the stock looks to close above $22.90. I will buy before the close if I get another buy signal.

6/11T10:51 NSM/G.F.

Stock: NSM

We have held this stock through the sell off because it has yet to violate support at the 200 day ma and the gap up launch point of $22.90. I believe the only way to make money in this type of market is as follows: Set up positions with clear and obvious stop points, then hold these positions regardless of the market action. Only unwind the position if the stop points are violated and/or volume action develops contrary to our position. This strategy can be applied to long and short positions.

NSM had a great and, what appeared to be, game changing EPS announcement. This is day 4 after the gap up. As our trading rule states, if the gap up is going to hold and the stock is going higher than the 4th day is the day to buy. I am going to double the position as the day progresses and will sell it all if it closes below the $22.90 support.

Gut Feel: All the pundits on the TV are advocating the purchase of Oil stocks and the sale of technology. That just smells like a contrary trade should be set up, especially when we see that the oil stocks have been under performing the commodity for a month now. That type of under performance is usually a negative sign.

6/11T9:31 Stocks in the News

Stocks in the News:


SWKS Skyworks: Channel checks continue to suggest strong demand for SWKS - Oppenheimer (10.81 )
Oppenheimer says channel checks continue to suggest strong demand for SWKS in the June quarter. Outside of strong demand and share gains from the usual suspects (RIMM, Samsung, LG and Nokia), the firm has learned of strong demand and share gains at Mediatek, potentially putting it close to the 10% of revenue threshold despite its recent mixed performance. Firm raises their estimates for the June quarter to $0.18 vs. consensus of $0.17. Firm also raises their tgt to $13 from $11.

Market Comments:

-The market sells off but is sitting on support now.
-The dollar rallies to recent highs on Fed jaw boning. I don't believe the Fed will be raising rates at the next meeting but the Futures markets are signaling a rise. I believe that it is absolutely absurd to think that the Fed could even consider raising rates during the continuous banking crises. Just look at the renewed weakness in the Financial sector, the Fed's hands are tied. Gold will go higher into the end of the year. Don't forget his is the weakest time of year for metal prices.

Stocks: A list of ideas that are holding up well and are exhibiting positive MACD histograms and good volume trends.

NSM- +EPS
MRVL - +EPS
MPWR - +EPS
ANAD - +EPS
SWKS
NETL + EPS
IPI
BIDU
RL
MVL

6/9T9:14 Co. in the News

Companies in the New:

MYGN:

MYGN Myriad Genetics: Flurizan U.S. phase III success appears unlikely - Cowen (48.03 )
Cowen says top-line results from the Flurizan U.S. Phase III Alzheimer's trial should be released this month. Firm's analysis of the available clinical and pre-clinical data, and checks with their clinical and statistical consultants lead firm to conclude that the Phase III trial may show a positive treatment trend, but Flurizan is unlikely to achieve statistically significant efficacy. This expected outcome is consistent with the Street consensus view, so downside to MYGN shares may be limited. While MYGN shares could have 15-25% upside potential vs the market should the Flurizan U.S. Phase III trial succeed, firm believes that is a very low-probability outcome.

ANAD:

ANAD Anadigics: Top pick from the Taiwan Computex Show - Jefferies (12.92 )
Jefferies notes that thee Taiwan Computex Show closes on the high note for exhibitors but a low note on orders. From survey they conducted remain concerned about the low volume of orders concerns that the macro economic factors could dampen demand in 2H 2008. As a result, many customers may delay orders until summer time. Firm's top stock from Computex is Anadigics (ANAD). The push out of the Montevina Notebook platform clearly benefits ANAD who is sole sourced designed in the current Santa Rosa WiFi modules for Notebooks. As a result, they believe the revenue stream for ANAD's WiFi products will see continued traction and stability.

6/6t9:50

Stocks: SOL, CSIQ, RDC

SOL, CSIQ:

We are following the SOHU road map. These are ultra high S/D rated stocks that we have made a lot of money on and we now are buying the 1st rally off of the 20 day ma. The only issue with the chart is the MACD hist. is not set up well, but looking at SOHU that is not an indicator that helps at this stage of the move. I have bought 1/2 the position and will double at the end of the 1st hour if the chart warrants. Of course the market is getting killed today so that may make this entry a little dicey, but off setting that is the $6 + rise in the price of oil.

RDC:

This is the only driller that fits the rules. We could use stronger EPS growth but other than that things look good. If we trade this idea I would only look for quick 5% + gains and book it.

6/6t8:07 Co in News

Companies in the New:

NSM:

NSM National Semi: Color on quarter (22.66 )
RBC says order growth was reported higher than they expected resulting in May rev at high end of guidance and Aug guidance beating firm's/consensus expectations. Higher than guided GM allowed May EPS beat consensus. Mgmt set expectation for EPS growth of 15-20% for the new fiscal year FY09. Firm raises their tgt to $25 due to increased EPS expectations while retaining a Sector Perform rating due to management's expectation of a tame revenue growth rate... Thomas Weisel note that in the quarter, business strengthened with book-to-bill increasing to above 1 as bookings grew 12% q/q to surpass billings. Flow of bookings in the quarter was seen as consistent and more linear than in the prior quarter. Internal inventories increased slightly from 82 days to 86 days but overall supply chain remains lean as distribution inventory days fell to 9.0-9.5 weeks from 9.5-10 weeks last quarter. Firm notes rev growth in F4Q08 was driven by strengthening in broad-based demand.


NSM National Semi: Summary of conference call (22.66 +0.78) -Update-
On the call, NSM says that it would not be unreasonable to grow earnings 15-20% this year, which would equate to approx $1.41-$1.51 vs. the $1.24 consensus. For 1Q09, the company is forcasting gross margins of 65-66%. NSM states that it continues to make positive progres on gross margins, partially due to the modernization impact at its factories and from product mix. NSM believes that not all the good news is factored into margins yet from the factory modernization. The company is currently at 70% utilization, which it feels it can improve on to driver margins even higher. NSM says it is entering the qtr with a higher level of backlog, inventories remain low, and most of its markets are reasonably strong. Co states that demand remains fairly routine at this point, but says rising gas prices could be a concern. The company is expecting approx $90-$94 mln in R&D spending for Q1. On the current share repurchase program, NSM has $256 mln remaining.

MPWR:

MPWR Monolithic Power: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing dislcoses 5.6% stake in 13G filing (26.82 )
In a filing out earlier this morning, the TSM filed a new position in the co.

6/5T3:05 New Leaf

Today will mark the 1st day of the incredibly strict discipline of only trading the stocks that fit all of the Rules. I pledge not to put a single penny into an idea that does not fit the code. As I review my trades over the last weeks months and 2 years I only make money on these type of stocks. All other trading is holding back my performance. I also pledge to only short the market to hedge positions. By following this creed I must acknowledge that I will not be fully invested most times because there are not a lot of ideas that fit. I will be increasing the average position size to help offset the dearth of choice.

Stock: BIDU

1st candidate for new leaf portfolio is BIDU. This stock has all the necessary requirements and comes complete with a cup & handle and is today breaking above the 20day ma. All that is missing is volume. So we will buy 1/2 the position today and add to it as volume comes in.

2nd MPWR: Volume break out. Buy 1/2 at close and 1/2 on weakness in the 1st hour tomorrow.

Time 11:01 Rules

Trading Technique: Complete list of Rules: The Buy Side

In no particular order:

- S/D rating 85 or better preferably 95+. This rule can be ignored on certain ADRs
- 3 quarters of blow out growth in revenue and EPS. Preferably triple digit EPS numbers
- 60 min Alligator buy signal
- Daily Alligator buy signal
- Daily MACD histogram positive and/or in an uptrend
- Positive volume in the base and on the breakout
- Position size varies depending on market direction. If the market is in an uptrend then put on the full position, but if the market not then only put on a 50% position

T10:07 M.M.W

Stock: NETL

This is the inaugural RCM "Mark My Words" investment idea. A M.M.W idea is one that has all the goods with no compromises. The Fundamentals have been thoroughly reviewed by Gary and he has given NETL his strongest seal of approval. Technically all the major points that I look for have come together. The chart has set up a Cup & Handle with the buy point breached at 36.17 on volume and the S/D rating is 93. Now all we need to do is be patient and wait for the 60 min. and daily alligators to develop.

Time 8:42

Trading Technique: Hedge on the market...

I have put on a substantial hedge on the market through QQQQ, SPY, DIA. There has been a major alligator sell signal on the whole market and it occurred right at the major areas of resistance. Keep in mind that the covers are only a 2 - 2.4% higher, so the potential losses are not that great. We must stick with this position unless the stops are hit or we see an alligator buy signal form. Also consider reducing the hedge if a serious reversal occurs. In the mean time continue looking for long ideas and add the very best if the market seems to be turning more positive even before we cover.

Time 8:36

Stocks in the News:


Derivatives traders signal bank woes likely to worsen - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg.com reports interest-rate derivatives traders are betting banks' difficulties obtaining cash to fund holdings and shore up balance sheets will worsen. The difference, or spread, between the three-month dollar London interbank offered rate, or Libor, and the overnight index swap rate, traded forward three months, is greater than similar spreads expiring this month... Derivatives trades are showing that while global markets have rebounded since March, the worst may not be over for banks after racking up $387 bln of losses and writedowns from mortgage-related securities since the start of last year.

LEH:

LEH Lehman Brothers puts, default swaps show investors bet on further drop - Bloomberg.com (30.61 ) -Update-
Bloomberg.com reports investors in the options and derivatives markets are betting Lehman Brothers has further to fall amid concern the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm may need a capital injection. Options traders increased their bearish positions to a two-month high yesterday, after analysts said Lehman may report its first quarterly loss since going public in 1994. The cost of protecting debt sold by Lehman from default rose to 240 basis points from 150 basis points in the credit-default swaps market during the past week.


LEH Lehman bought back shares on 6/3 - WSJ (30.61 ) -Update-
The Wall Street Journal reports a rumor that Lehman Bros. (LEH) was buying back shares yesterday turned out to be true, people familiar with the situation said. Such buying helped the stock pare its losses Tuesday. Briefing.com note: See 05:29 and 05:39 comments for further details.


LEH Lehman hedges lose $500 mln to $700 mln - Financial Times (30.61 )
Financial Times reports Lehman Bros. (LEH) lost $500 mln - $700 mln on certain hedging positions in the second quarter, contributing to what is expected to be a larger-than-anticipated loss that may lead the bank to raise more capital by selling a stake to an outside investor. People close to the matter said Lehman had opened talks with potential investors including asset managers and Asian banks. Lehman has not made a decision on whether to raise more capital, people familiar with the matter said. If it does, the bank is more likely to sell a strategic stake rather than issue common shares. However, all options remain under consideration. Among those interested in providing capital to Lehman is CV Starr, the investment vehicle of Hank Greenberg, former chairman and chief executive officer of AIG (AIG), according to people familiar with the matter. Lehman has also reached out to other US financial institutions, including institutional investors and several Chinese entities. The most likely Chinese investor would be the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Executives at private equity firms say they have not been approached by Lehman Brothers. The founder of one major firm noted that if his firm took a major stake in Lehman "we'd be penalized. Other investment banks wouldn't show you deals and give you competitive financing."

Time 10:53

Psychological issues:

O.K. now I'm flip flopping. I am back on the short of the market. I've decided not to wait for the close because as I go through all the charts of all 3 indecies I have to admit that they all have set up perfect daily tops. Even if the market tries to rally intra day, unless it breaks above the downtrend and reverses, the top formations should stop the advance. We need to stay still and let this position play out.

Time 10:06

Stocks: Hedge short QQQQ, DIA, SPY

Market strong @ 10:00 on the back of stupid Bernake rhetoric. I'm reducing the hedge for now as it appesrs that this market tends to follow all day on its opening move. There have been very few reversals in this market during the day so let's cover 2/3 of the hedge and put it back on at the close as if the down trend is still clearly in effect.

Time 8:48

Stocks in the News:

SWKS:


SWKS Skyworks introduces industry's first BAW filters to enable WiMAX and WLAN co-existence (10.33 )
Co introduces the industry's first bulk acoustic wave filters for customer premise equipment to allow co-existence between wireless local area networks in the home and enterprise, and WiMAX networks which cover wider areas including neighborhoods and cities. As both networks operate at very closely spaced frequency bands, these unique BAW filters reject the interfering frequencies while allowing the desired signals to pass for the selected network.

ICE:


ICE IntercontinentalExchange announces acquisition of Creditex Group; expected to be accretive in 12 to 18 months from closing (134.15 )
Co announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Creditex Group, an processor of credit default swaps with markets spanning the U.S., Europe and Asia. The transaction consideration will total $625 million comprising approximately $565 million in ICE common stock and $60 million in cash, as well as a working capital adjustment to be finalized at closing. The transaction is expected to be accretive in 12 to 18 months from closing. Based on recent results and expected synergies, the transaction would yield $9 million to $14 million in total pretax synergies in 2009, comprising incremental revenues and expenses.


ICE IntercontinentalExchange reports May average daily volume in futures during May rose 20%, and OTC commissions increased 68% over May 2007 (138.20 ) -Update-
Co reports solid growth in volume and commissions for the month of May. Average daily volume in futures during May rose 20%, and OTC commissions increased 68% over May 2007. The three-month rolling average rate per contract for the period ended May 2008 was $1.21 in Europe. Total futures and options volume at ICE Futures U.S. increased 7% y/y. The three-month rolling average rate per contract for the period ended May 2008 was $2.13 for agricultural futures and options in North America.

LEH:


LEH Losses push Lehman to weigh raising new capital - WSJ (33.83 )
The Wall Street Journal reports Lehman Brothers (LEH) is considering raising billions of dollars in fresh capital to help shore up its balance sheet, according to people familiar with the matter. The exact amount of the capital hike isn't known, but analysts and Wall Street executives estimate it is likely to be $3 bln to $4 bln. They said Lehman would probably announce the capital raising in conjunction with its quarterly results, due the week of June 16. The amount of new capital under consideration suggests Lehman's quarterly loss could be larger than the $300 mln or so that some analysts have been expecting. The new capital would likely be raised by issuing common shares, diluting current shareholders, people familiar with the matter said. Lehman still has a lot of exposure to the mortgage market, and they are going to need capital to get through it," said UBS analyst Glenn Schorr.

Time 10:48

Stocks: DIA, SPY, QQQQ

All three are giving sell signals at key resistance areas. DIA is the worst looking with a major Alligator sell, followed by SPY. QQQQ is not an alligator yet but seems to have made a double top and I want to get the hedge on this close to the cover. All three should be covered about 1.5% higher than the current price. I will put on half the short now and add to all three after the 12 - 2 rally.

CSIQ:
Meanwhile, CSIQ is giving another buy signal as it clears the 9 day ma. If we follow the SOHU road map we need to be reestablishing the full position by the end of today. This strength is particularly impressive when considered against the backdrop of the overall market sell off and the major sell off in shares of leader FSLR.

Time 8:38

Stocks in the News:

Solar stocks:
The solar power business is bracing itself for a collapse in prices that could lead to a shake-out - FT
FT reports the solar power business is bracing itself for a collapse in prices that could lead to a shake-out in one of the most promising areas of the renewable energy sector. However, a price slump could hasten the take-up of the technology which would help boost the overall volume of future activity, even as margins fall, industry analysts and officials add. Expectations of falling prices have been partly sparked by a surge in the level of manufacturing capacity for solar panels. This is likely to lead to demand outstripping supply for the first time in years. Another factor driving prices is uncertainty over the degree of government subsidies in some key markets for the technology. According to Dean Cooper, analyst at Ambrian, the global capacity for production of photovoltaic equipment - the biggest section of solar power technology which converts sunlight directly into electricity - is set to increase "dramatically", from 3 gigawatts last year to 15 to 20 gigawatts of production in 2010. Much of the growth is coming from China. Prices for solar components would drop from about $3.80 per watt to about $1.40 a watt by 2010, he said.

SOL: Sell remaining position as this story will override my other trading rules. This is a 30% increase in float and will put the stock down at least 15% until the deal gets done. Look to buy the stock back when the deal is done.

ReneSola (SOL) files for a 9 mln share ADS secondary offering; 8.14 mln ADS are being offered by the co and 860K ADS are being offered by selling shareholders

CME, NMX:


CME CME move for Nymex likely to be blocked - Financial Times (430.30 )
Financial Times reports the CME Group's (CME) attempt to enhance its position as the world's biggest financial exchange by taking over Nymex (NMX) is looking increasingly likely to be derailed by shareholder opposition. Any deal must be approved by at least three-quarters of Nymex's membership, meaning opponents of the bid need only secure 205 of 816 votes to block the takeover, a figure both activists and independent. While many members at the New York energy exchange feel the Chicago group's offer to buy them out for $612,000 per seat is too low, the target co's shareholders are unhappy about the level of the overall cash-and-shares bid, which has dropped from $11.3 bln or more than $119 per share when it was first proposed in January to $8.8 bln or about $93 per share due to falls in the CME's share price. Gary Glass, who is spearheading one of several shareholder groups opposed to the current terms, said the bid would be voted down unless it was raised to near the level of the original proposal. "If the CME wants Nymex, they have got to pay," he said. "If they don't pay, there's no way this deal's closing whatsoever." Those familiar with the CME's thinking say there may be some wiggle-room for a relatively modest improvement in the offer, but warn it will not come close to what the opposition groups are demanding. "Will the CME come up with another billion dollars? Absolutely not," said one former CME board member.