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Wednesday, July 2, 2008

7/2T4:03

M.M.W MYGN:

I sold the stock for a 3.1% gain due to the collapse in the equity markets. Transports are down over 8% in two days! NASD dropped 2.3% today. While I like the idea of MYGN I just could not stay long in the midst of this carnage. Lets watch and buy back if we get a drop in the stock and the markets recover.

As for the markets, tomorrow will be a very important day. It's only a half day but a lot of catalysts:

- Tricky Treche, the head of the ECB, should be raising rates tonight in Europe. This will continue to put pressure on the US$. However, he is tricky... If he doesn't raise rates watch the US$ fly as shorts cover. This action will hurt gold and boost the equity markets if the trends continue.

- US gov't payroll data is announced tomorrow. If it is in line with today's ADP report look for a continuation of the sell off into the three day weekend, that could spell real trouble. However, I believe it is more likely that the numbers won't be as bad. In the past when the ADP numbers are worse than expected the Gov't numbers are better and vice verse. If you are a conspiracy theorist, than you should also look for a better number that will allow the Plunge Protection team to rescue the market before the long weekend.

Action: If the number is better and or the ECB doesn't raise rates than we need to be buying the alligator buy signals on the market that will no doubt materialize. We may also want to cover shorts for the time being because another strong day on volume will be another accumulation day and a follow through of sorts.

7/2T11:02 Market Comment

Market Comment: 1st Accumulation day...

Beware! The markets are still in a down trend but yesterday was a major volume reversal day that resulted in the 1st accumulation day since this sell off started in the middle of May. I'm not calling the for the bottom, but I will say that in order for a bottom to develop accumulation days need to appear and this is day 1. I still expect lower prices but will watch closely to see if they come with lower momentum as well or does a positive divergence begin to develop.

The reasons don't really matter to a technician, but the market reversed yesterday on the back of two dubious stories. One, the ISM number was stronger than expected and we don't believe any of these gov't numbers. And two, GM stated that their losses were a little better than the street expected. these are the type of stories that can get shorts to cover but they are really nothing new that would change the picture.

7/2T9:02 M.M.W on MYGN

Mark My Words: MYGN buy signal

Major buy signal on MYGN. The company announced on 6/30 that the Florizan drug failed in its phase 3 trial. The stock sold off on the news for one day. Yesterday the stock exploded up 12%. There was a upgrade by a major firm, but the real reason for the big move is two fold. One, the fundamentals of the business just got really good. The drag on cash from the development of Florizan is gone and the true EPS power of the diagnostic business will now come to light. And two, there is a huge short position, 15 days, 12 million shares, 30% of the float. They will all need to cover now because the bad news is out, but unlike most biotechs this company has a real business behind its drug development. The shorts are now caught in a stock that is actually better off without the drag of drug development.

Technically the stock gave a massive buy signal yesterday. The stock was up on huge volume and was strong all day regardless of the overall market action. This was a clear reversal day and a follow through is almost a certainty. The 60 min. and daily are signalling an alligator buy together. The MACD histogram is giving a good positive divergence, and S/D is 88 (good for a biotech).