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Information disseminated through the traditional financial news outlets is often subject to a hidden agenda. At best the information is misguided and at worst deliberately misleading. With a combined 60+ years of experience in the financial markets, we intend to help the reader separate fact from fiction and expose the news that actually moves markets.

If you don’t read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed.
–Mark Twain

RCM Manages the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds:

  • Fortune's Favor I (Long/Short US equity)
  • Fortune's Favor Offshore (offshore clients)
  • Fortune's Favor Precious Metals

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Time 8:48

Stocks in the News:

SWKS:


SWKS Skyworks introduces industry's first BAW filters to enable WiMAX and WLAN co-existence (10.33 )
Co introduces the industry's first bulk acoustic wave filters for customer premise equipment to allow co-existence between wireless local area networks in the home and enterprise, and WiMAX networks which cover wider areas including neighborhoods and cities. As both networks operate at very closely spaced frequency bands, these unique BAW filters reject the interfering frequencies while allowing the desired signals to pass for the selected network.

ICE:


ICE IntercontinentalExchange announces acquisition of Creditex Group; expected to be accretive in 12 to 18 months from closing (134.15 )
Co announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Creditex Group, an processor of credit default swaps with markets spanning the U.S., Europe and Asia. The transaction consideration will total $625 million comprising approximately $565 million in ICE common stock and $60 million in cash, as well as a working capital adjustment to be finalized at closing. The transaction is expected to be accretive in 12 to 18 months from closing. Based on recent results and expected synergies, the transaction would yield $9 million to $14 million in total pretax synergies in 2009, comprising incremental revenues and expenses.


ICE IntercontinentalExchange reports May average daily volume in futures during May rose 20%, and OTC commissions increased 68% over May 2007 (138.20 ) -Update-
Co reports solid growth in volume and commissions for the month of May. Average daily volume in futures during May rose 20%, and OTC commissions increased 68% over May 2007. The three-month rolling average rate per contract for the period ended May 2008 was $1.21 in Europe. Total futures and options volume at ICE Futures U.S. increased 7% y/y. The three-month rolling average rate per contract for the period ended May 2008 was $2.13 for agricultural futures and options in North America.

LEH:


LEH Losses push Lehman to weigh raising new capital - WSJ (33.83 )
The Wall Street Journal reports Lehman Brothers (LEH) is considering raising billions of dollars in fresh capital to help shore up its balance sheet, according to people familiar with the matter. The exact amount of the capital hike isn't known, but analysts and Wall Street executives estimate it is likely to be $3 bln to $4 bln. They said Lehman would probably announce the capital raising in conjunction with its quarterly results, due the week of June 16. The amount of new capital under consideration suggests Lehman's quarterly loss could be larger than the $300 mln or so that some analysts have been expecting. The new capital would likely be raised by issuing common shares, diluting current shareholders, people familiar with the matter said. Lehman still has a lot of exposure to the mortgage market, and they are going to need capital to get through it," said UBS analyst Glenn Schorr.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Time 10:48

Stocks: DIA, SPY, QQQQ

All three are giving sell signals at key resistance areas. DIA is the worst looking with a major Alligator sell, followed by SPY. QQQQ is not an alligator yet but seems to have made a double top and I want to get the hedge on this close to the cover. All three should be covered about 1.5% higher than the current price. I will put on half the short now and add to all three after the 12 - 2 rally.

CSIQ:
Meanwhile, CSIQ is giving another buy signal as it clears the 9 day ma. If we follow the SOHU road map we need to be reestablishing the full position by the end of today. This strength is particularly impressive when considered against the backdrop of the overall market sell off and the major sell off in shares of leader FSLR.

Time 8:38

Stocks in the News:

Solar stocks:
The solar power business is bracing itself for a collapse in prices that could lead to a shake-out - FT
FT reports the solar power business is bracing itself for a collapse in prices that could lead to a shake-out in one of the most promising areas of the renewable energy sector. However, a price slump could hasten the take-up of the technology which would help boost the overall volume of future activity, even as margins fall, industry analysts and officials add. Expectations of falling prices have been partly sparked by a surge in the level of manufacturing capacity for solar panels. This is likely to lead to demand outstripping supply for the first time in years. Another factor driving prices is uncertainty over the degree of government subsidies in some key markets for the technology. According to Dean Cooper, analyst at Ambrian, the global capacity for production of photovoltaic equipment - the biggest section of solar power technology which converts sunlight directly into electricity - is set to increase "dramatically", from 3 gigawatts last year to 15 to 20 gigawatts of production in 2010. Much of the growth is coming from China. Prices for solar components would drop from about $3.80 per watt to about $1.40 a watt by 2010, he said.

SOL: Sell remaining position as this story will override my other trading rules. This is a 30% increase in float and will put the stock down at least 15% until the deal gets done. Look to buy the stock back when the deal is done.

ReneSola (SOL) files for a 9 mln share ADS secondary offering; 8.14 mln ADS are being offered by the co and 860K ADS are being offered by selling shareholders

CME, NMX:


CME CME move for Nymex likely to be blocked - Financial Times (430.30 )
Financial Times reports the CME Group's (CME) attempt to enhance its position as the world's biggest financial exchange by taking over Nymex (NMX) is looking increasingly likely to be derailed by shareholder opposition. Any deal must be approved by at least three-quarters of Nymex's membership, meaning opponents of the bid need only secure 205 of 816 votes to block the takeover, a figure both activists and independent. While many members at the New York energy exchange feel the Chicago group's offer to buy them out for $612,000 per seat is too low, the target co's shareholders are unhappy about the level of the overall cash-and-shares bid, which has dropped from $11.3 bln or more than $119 per share when it was first proposed in January to $8.8 bln or about $93 per share due to falls in the CME's share price. Gary Glass, who is spearheading one of several shareholder groups opposed to the current terms, said the bid would be voted down unless it was raised to near the level of the original proposal. "If the CME wants Nymex, they have got to pay," he said. "If they don't pay, there's no way this deal's closing whatsoever." Those familiar with the CME's thinking say there may be some wiggle-room for a relatively modest improvement in the offer, but warn it will not come close to what the opposition groups are demanding. "Will the CME come up with another billion dollars? Absolutely not," said one former CME board member.