Investment Strategy, Equity Market Trouble, "Positive" GDP, Norway Increases Rates

Stock Market Investing: The equity averages are down another 2.5+% today capping off an awful week during which time the uptrends from March and the 50day moving averages have been violated. The price action should not come as a shock but instead as a reminder of the tightrope the Fed must walk in order to keep this economic house of cards from collapsing.

The Fed's quagmire: Use quantitative easing and other liquidity producing programs to save the U.S. economy from a depression while at the same time avoid turning the US$ into the North American equivalent of the Argentine Peso. (This method of saving the economy is a pet project of Ben Bernanke and the culmination of his years in academia, G-d help us. Never in history has the debasement of a currency led to a true and sustainable economic recovery. But I digress.)

So, in order to continue the debasement shell game, the Fed must occasionally make it look as if US$ strength is important. What better time to feign support than at the completion of a $300 billion Q.E. program and in the midst of positive GDP excitement. I have been writing for weeks that when we begin to read about "good" economic numbers we must take action to protect the portfolio. Well, this week was replete with "positive" numbers, so the US$ rallies and asset prices suffer.

Investment Strategy: Remain long a core position of precious metal investments and use inverse ETFs to benefit from market weakness. We expect precious metal investments to outperform on a relative basis and would view any weakness as opportunity. I will note: today the spot price for Gold is down only .15% as I write this; the epitome of relative out performance.

You may wish to know why I place quotes around words like, good and positive, when discussing the recent spat of economic numbers. Well, the answer is simple: when we and our respected colleagues parse the numbers warning signs are uncovered. Please review the following two accounts of the "exciting" GDP data so you can better understand our concerns...

Briefing: Q3 GDP Goes Positive!

As expected, GDP growth in Q3 went positive for the first time in four quarters. GDP performed better than expected as output grew by 3.5% quarter-over-quarter annualized compared with the consensus expectation of 3.2%. Demand was strong across all sectors of the economy as consumption increased 3.4%, gross private domestic investment increased 11.5%, exports increased 14.7%, imports increased 16.4%, and government expenditures rose 2.3%. With all sectors seemingly humming along in Q3, final sales of domestic product jumped 2.5% compared with an increase of only 0.7% in Q2...

Unfortunately, a more detailed look at where economic growth occurred makes it difficult to pronounce a full sustainable recovery is on its way. Government assistance played an extremely large role in producing the positive GDP result. For example, the Cash for Clunkers stimulus package boosted motor vehicle sales and contributed 1.47 percentage points out of the 2.36 percentage points that personal consumption added to GDP. Further, the first-time homebuyers tax break has benefited not only the construction firms, who have ended their decline in manufacturing new homes, but also realtors through increased income/fees. The jump in realtor expenses accounted for a full third of the increase in the residential investment component...

Inventories provided positive growth to GDP for the first time since Q3 2008. However, the data is a little misleading. GDP is measured as a rate of change between quarters. Inventories actually declined by $46.3 billion in Q3. However, the drop in Q2 was so severe that the rate of change was actually positive $29.4 billion. We expect inventories to continue to improve over the next year and provide a strong bonus to GDP.

GDP is...Better Than Expected?: The Market Ticker

You cannot have an economic recovery when on a q/o/q basis real disposable income is contracting at a 7.4% annual rate and worse, the spread between nominal and real income is widening, indicating that mandatory purchases such a food, energy and health care - are increasing. MORE...

Meanwhile, Norway becomes the second country behind Australia to increase interest rates. The heat is being turned up on the carry trade and the Fed. This development out of Europe places further pressure on the Fed to reduce Q.E....

Norway's central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point to 1.5%, the first interest rate increase in Europe since the global financial crisis bit a year ago. It signaled more tightening to come as the economy recovers. Higher crude prices have helped oil-rich Norway. Commodity-rich Australia hiked rates earlier in Oct. The U.S., U.K. and euro zone are unlikely to hike rates soon.

Next week I will discuss the possible duration of this US$ rally as well as the Fed's ability to remain hawkish. Until then chew on this...

A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have. –Gerald Ford

Investment Strategy: Batten Down The Hatches, Quantitative Easing to Slow, Consumer Confidence Suffers, CNBC Viewership Plunge

Stock Market Investing: The action of the equity markets over the last couple of weeks has been, to say the least, suspect. Today, the averages are testing support at the 50-day moving average and the uptrend line that goes back to March, the beginning of this Fed induced, government sponsored rally. For your edification I will highlight just a few of the warning signs:

• Too many distribution days.
  
• The bullish percentage of NYSE stocks in bullish trends is declining.
  
• The percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 50-day MA is declining.
  
• The Transportation Average has broken down with Rail stocks leading the way. Last week's price action resulted in an "Outside-Down" week extremely negative behavior.
  
• Momentum as judged by the MACD declined significantly during the markets' last advance.
  
• The reversal down last week occurred at key resistance areas (see Monday's post for details)
  
• The averages were unable to reach the top of their respective channels on the last advance, which often happens at the end of an uptrend. This action signifies the buyers are exhausted.
  
• Even with all these negative developments, the Daily Sentiment Index remains in rarefied territory at 87 %. In 22 years of tracking this number, 87% or higher was reached or exceeded only 5 times. The bulls are ripe for slaughter.

The ultimate question: What happens to a Fed induced, government sponsored rally when the punch bowl is taken away? Probable answer: The drunks left standing around the table get rolled. Investment Strategy: Batten down the hatches we are in for a blow (pun intended).

The US$ is at the epicenter of the mayhem unfolding in equities. I have been writing for weeks that if the US$ continues to slide asset prices will continue to fly in an inflation induced rally. Well, over the last week the US$ has rallied off the lows and asset prices, in a mirror image, have suffered.

The reasons behind the US$'s advance offer the keys to understanding the magnitude and perhaps the duration of the asset price decline.

To begin, this week marks the completion of the $300 billion Fed program to participate in Treasury auctions. In other words, the Fed is curtailing Quantitative Easing for the moment. This change in QE alone would be enough to rally the beleaguered US$, if for no other reason than a relief rally. However, other reasons for the US$ advance abound.

As Jim Sinclaire explains, "November 4th is the FOMC meeting most likely to contain discussions of timing for the exit from economic stimulation." Many questions have been thrown at the Fed about exit strategies and in the event that Nov. 4th may offer some answers the US$ is repricing.

Jim further explains, "November 7th is the G20 meeting at which BRIC nations will anticipate a cessation of QE and a commitment to establish a currency alternative to the US dollar." The best way to delay the movement away from the US$ as the supreme currency is to induce a spirited rally in front of said meeting.

However, can the Fed really afford to reduce the QE? Without Fed buying of Treasuries, rates will surely rise. I will emphatically state that the US economy is in no shape to withstand a raise in rates. Please don't believe all the cheerleading you hear on CNBC about good earnings and economic recoveries. The majority of "good" earnings have been gained through creative accounting (financials) or inventory builds, not real economic growth due to consumer demand.

An economic recovery is not sustainable sans consumer demand and the numbers out today paint a bleak picture: Briefing, "October Consumer Confidence 47.7 vs 53.5 consensus, prior 53.1" Consumers know reality and feel the difficulty of the economic situation. Every day CNBC programming moves farther away from reality which may explain why "Nielsen reported a 50% plunge in CNBC viewership in October year over year. CNBC has experienced a massive 52% decline in overall viewers during business day hours (5 am - 7 pm), and a not much better 49% drop in its demo (25-54) in the month of October as compared to last year October 30th."

Appearances would suggest that the Fed is stuck between a proverbial rock and its corresponding hard place: Continue QE at the risk of the US$ or stop QE at the risk of economic recovery. I, however, would like to offer an altogether different and more troubling take on the situation for the equity markets. I will ask you to accept as a given that the treasury market and the direction of interest rates is more important to the Fed than the equity markets. If you accept this opinion then walk with me a little bit further and acknowledge the fact that as the stock market sells off fear drives investors into the treasury markets. Can you see where I'm going with this?

Until the Fed is ready to resume QE, it is in the best interest of the authorities to have the equity markets sell off and fear to grow thus driving the herd into treasuries to fill the void the Fed's exit creates.

Investment Strategy Turns More Cautious, Existing Home Sales, Record Auctions This Week, Galleon Grief

Stock Market Investing: The Equity markets were down across the board Friday as the week ended. Last week was a week of churning and distribution, two actions I hate to see during a market advance as they often mark the end of a rally. To make matters worse the churning occurred at key areas of resistance on all three major averages: 10,000 on the DOW, 2,200 on NASD and 1,100 on the S&P 500. Investment Strategy: Turning more cautious.

With this negative week still fresh on the mind it seems appropriate to evoke the immortal words of Andy Grove, "Only the paranoid survive." and discuss three possible developments that could derail the bull.

Development One: Economic numbers that suggest recovery begin to outpace negative economic news. This leads to the perception -- or possibly, the reality -- that the Fed will reverse its stance on easy credit.

If you are a new reader I strongly advise the perusal of past posts before you begin your protest. Those of you who are familiar with my work will know the well documented relationship between bad economic numbers, easy credit, weak US$ and strong equity markets. As long as the Fed remains committed to easy credit in all its forms the bull market can continue.

However, I have witnessed a disturbing trend over the last few weeks. Good news on the economy leads to selling. This suggests to me a real fear pervades the markets with regard to the continuation of easy credit. The equity markets are trading at these lofty levels because of liquidity not reality and if the Fed-controlled gravy train of easy credit stops, then trouble will ensue. When the gravy stops dog will eat dog. What the distribution of the last few weeks may be telling us is that the big dogs are smelling trouble and are preparing.

Today's trading offers a perfect illustration of Development One. First, good earnings numbers out of Microsoft & Amazon were not able to move the markets higher. Instead, the excitement was used by the big players to distribute their holdings. Second, the following "good" economic report hit the news wires this morning, but the equity markets sold off almost immediately after the release:

Existing Home Sales Exceed Expectations
Existing home sales jumped 9.2% to 5.57 million units in September. The increase followed an unexpected decline (-2.9%) of sales in August. The consensus was expecting sales to rise by a much more modest 5.1% to 5.35 million units.

Beyond the headline sales numbers, there was another good piece of news from the data release. Distressed properties, which accounted for almost 50% of sales throughout the spring and summer, have declined significantly to only 29%. Sales of non-distressed homes make it more likely that consumers will start looking at more expensive properties as homeowners move up the pricing ladder. The increase in sales helped push the total available supply down to 7.8 months.

Development Two: A funding crisis unfolds.

Will the US$ decline in value to a point where long rates must increase aggressively for our government to continue funding its debt? How long will China and others tolerate the ruse of quantitative easing before demanding higher rates?

We obviously don't have the answer to these questions. However, this very real possibility must be respected. There has always been a high correlation between long rates and the equity markets. I can think of no better example than the crash of 1987. For four months the bond market was collapsing (rates rising) before the equity markets infamously followed.

Of course, in '87 bonds sold off because the Fed was tightening. If, however, bonds sell off even in the face of Fed easy credit policies then I hate to see the ensuing equity market response.

Record Auctions Announced...euro 1.5001...yen 91.5060 (3.411% -07/32)
Treasury will sell a record batch of bonds next week with $44B 2-yrs Tuesday, $41B 5-yrs Wednesday and $31B 7-yrs Thursday. The record levels show an increase of $1B on the 2-and-5s, and $2B on the 7-yrs. There will also be $7B reopened 5-yr TIPS going off Monday along with $29B 3-mos and $30B 6-mos. The market may get some relief as the news is over, but the high end of expectations had been for closer to $115B versus the $116B announced, so any relief may be brief.

Development Three: The high profile SEC take down of Galleon may cause a ripple effect leading to hedge fund unwinds.

Galleon had over $3 billion and now according to DJ: "Galleon is winding down all hedge funds."

Last year we all witnessed what happens when hedge funds are forced to unwind. Many of the big funds are often involved in the same trades and one unwind leads to another. There will be many denials along the way but the equity markets will speak the truth.

I will also respectfully submit to you, the readers, that the derivatives crisis is far from over. The individuals who created the credit crisis are still running the show. If you believe this statement is incorrect or feel President Obama promised you change so his cabinet must be full of new thinkers, I suggest you view the PBS Frontline documentary entitled The Warning.

The Warning brings to mind two obvious questions:

1- What will cause the next derivatives crisis? Could it be the take down of a major hedge fund that ignites the next collapse?

2- Why isn't Brooksley Born a major member of the Obama administration? If Obama was truly an agent for change wouldn't she be a must in the cabinet?

US$ Carry Trade Intensifies, Pound Sterling Advances on BoE Comments, Fed's Yellen's Comments Add to US$ Decline, Mortgage Apps.Decline

Just as I suspected!!

I wrote in yesterday's post, "The U.S. $ carry trade will gain steam if European economic recovery/inflation outpaces the U.S. and leads to rate increases".

Well, apparently my conclusions are sound. Today the U.S.$ price is down more than 3/4% making a new low and news out of the UK is leading the charge. The Pound Sterling has gained 5% this week alone vs. the U.S.$. Today's comments out of the BoE speak directly to the points I highlighted yesterday....

Pound up as BoE shows no asset-purchase split - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports sterling moved sharply higher after the Bank of England released the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting. In the minutes, it was clear that the decision to leave the scale of asset purchases on hold at 175 bln pounds was unanimous, relieving suspicions that some policymakers at the BoE had wanted a further boost.

The currency had already started the day with a positive tone, after BOE Governor Mervyn King warned consumers in an overnight speech in Edinburgh to be prepared for rising interest rates in future. That pushed the pound up from the $1.64 area at the outset of European trading hours. Now the October BOE minutes have added fuel to that move, shoving sterling well above $1.65. Sterling has recovered a good deal of lost ground of late after a recent drubbing. It has climbed by over 5% against the struggling U.S. dollar in the past week. The euro has sunk by a more modest 3% against the pound over the same period. Strength reflects a sense that the currency's decline seen over the previous two months was overdone, prompting some bears to bail out of negative bets.

...Meanwhile, news out of the Fed here in the U.S. confirms the Fed's commitment to lower rates for "an extended period." This potent combination of diverging Central bank rate direction is the exact recipe for the lighter fluid I spoke of yesterday and the impact is felt immediately in the Forex market....

Fed's Yellen: No tightening in next several months - Reuters
Reuters reports the time for the U.S. Federal Reserve to start pulling back its extensive support for the economy is not close at hand and policymakers have time to decide what sequence of steps they will take, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said on Tuesday. "We have used the language of an extended period," Yellen, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, told reporters after a Fed conference. "This is not something I anticipate happening over the next several months. Certainly not."

...Of course, the reason Yellen can make the above comments stems from the ongoing USA real estate problem. In fact, today data released about mortgages continues to cause concern, "MBA Mortgage Applications -13.7% vs -1.8% Prior."

As this saga unfolds our investment strategy remains the same. Long precious metals and the commodity space. We would expect a continued equity market advance and would focus on investments in other countries where the currency and the growth rates outperform the USA. For a complete list of companies that we feel offer significant potential, please visit http://www.rosenthalcapital.com/ and view the Letters and Articles page.

My next post will cover three major issues I feel could derail this equity market rally. Until then remember, "It takes as much energy to wish as it does to plan." Eleanor Roosevelt

Sept. Housing Data, PPI, Russia and China Talk of Replacing the US$ on energy Trade, UK Real Estate Heats Up

More economic numbers out this morning that suggest a continuation of the status quo.
The Fed can point to the PPI numbers and pretend there is no inflation...
September Core PPI Y/Y +1.8% vs +2.0% consensus, prior +2.3%
September PPI Y/Y -4.8% vs -4.3% consensus

...So rates can remain low to help the listless housing market...
September Housing Starts 590K vs 610K consensus, prior revised to 587K from 598K
September Building Permits 573K vs 595K consensus, prior revised to 580K from 579K

Somehow, all this data results in a U.S.$ rally, T-bond advance (rate decline) and an equity market sell off. I would expect this counter trend move to be short lived. In fact, there have been some developments regarding the U.S.$ that should concern any U.S. $ optimist.

Last week, Russia and China conducted meetings to begin settling trade between the two countries using their own currency. The trade will involve the energy markets. This development brings to mind recent denials we highlighted in the October 5th post out of the middle east that a similar plan is in the works. I believe the appropriate axiom begins, "Where there's smoke...."

BEIJING, October 14 (RIA Novosti) - Russia is ready to consider using the Russian and Chinese national currencies instead of the dollar in bilateral oil and gas dealings, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.The premier, currently on a visit to Beijing, said a final decision on the issue can only be made after a thorough expert analysis."Yesterday, energy companies, in particular Gazprom, raised the question of using the national currency. We are ready to examine the possibility of selling energy resources for rubles, but our Chinese partners need rubles for that. We are also ready to sell for yuans," Putin said. MORE...

A possible accelerant about to be poured onto the pile of burning U.S.$s may have a UK label. The real estate market in the UK appears to be heating up. Prices for both residential and commercial properties in London are hitting records. If this recovery turns into a trend that moves across the channel to the rest of Western Europe then Ben and Pinocchio could have a real problem.

The U.S. $ carry trade will gain steam if a European economic recovery/inflation outpaces the U.S. and leads to rate increases much like in Austraila (see Oct. 7th post). A lagging real estate market here in the U.S. will make it difficult for Ben to raise rates. Meanwhile, Pinocchio (Geithner) will continue to express the desire for a strong $ as his nose grows...

London Agents ‘Sold Out’ as Home Asking Prices Jump to Record Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- London home sellers raised asking prices to a record high this month and led gains across the U.K. as the shortage of properties for sale intensified, Rightmove Plc said. MORE...

UK property undergoes dramatic recovery - FT
FT reports the UK commercial property market delivered the highest monthly price growth for more than three years in September, capping a remarkable comeback for a sector that looked to have been wiped out only a matter of months ago. Investors are now chasing commercial property and some are complaining that the market has become too hot again. The switch in sentiment has been tangible as investors look to take advantage of a slump that wiped off about 45% from prices from the peak in 2007 by the beginning of the summer. The recovery has been building since, with IPD, the benchmark index, rising 1.1% for September, the highest since June 2006.

RCM Investment Strategy, Earning GS/JPM/INTC/GOOG, Industrial Production Surges, Michigan Sentiment Misses, 60% Of Borrowers Underwater, Fed's Fisher

Tea Leaves; in the last couple of days there have been a lot of them, so let's start reading:

Earnings from the technology space, Intel & Google to name a couple, have been well above expectation. This could be a positive development, but of course expectations are a joke. Analysts constantly get it wrong so let's dispense with the "better than expectations" farce. A note a caution on the Intel number and others on that end of the food chain; an inventory rebuild is occurring at an aggressive pace. This rebuild is only a good thing if consumers spend. I would be more apt to cheer a good earning number out of, say Best Buy, as that would show end user demand. Inventory build without end user demand spells trouble for the economy in Q1 of 2010.

I am loath to discuss the earning of the banks. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs showed strong results. However, when we parse the numbers it appears that earning were again created with clever accounting.

The tangible parts of GS's earnings were suspect (Investment Banking -38%, Asset Management -6%, Trading and Principal Investments -7%) while the FICC unit (Fixed Income, Currency, Commodities) showed all the gain. "Net revenues in FICC were $5.99 billion, significantly higher than the third quarter of 2008. These results reflected strong performances in credit products and mortgages, which were significantly higher compared with a difficult third quarter of 2008." In other words, last quarter this division had mark downs and this quarter the assets were marked up. Is that a sign of a strong business or clever accounting?

JP Morgan's results were similar to GS. Should we cheer or should we be concerned with this ugly little fact buried in the announcement: "JPMorgan’s loss provision to cover current and future home loan defaults rose to $3.99 billion, while its provision for credit card losses surged to $4.97 billion"

We will choose to be concerned. However, the share prices of the financial group remain in an uptrend and while it may be stupid to believe the earning "surprises" it may be equally stupid to fight the trend of higher share prices. I would suggest you keep the above discussion in the back of your mind so when prices begin to falter you will not be the proverbial "deer in the head lights."

A review of our investment strategy may be in order before we begin the reading of economic tea leaves. I have established over the last few months that the inflation trade is under way. Assets are inflating, both the commodity and equity markets, because of increasing U.S.$ weakness. Hence, weak economic numbers are actually positive for the aforementioned markets because the Fed can not raise rates and defend the U.S.$ while the economy is still in trouble.

So, how is the economy looking?


ECONX Industrial Production Surges
Industrial production rallied for the third consecutive month as production increased 0.7% in September. The consensus expected a much more moderate increase of only 0.2%. The jump in production was expected to be driven by the auto industry, and the sector didn't disappoint as motor vehicle production rose 8.1% as assemblies of autos and light trucks increased 13.0% to 7.15 million vehicles.

The numbers were even better than the headline suggested as total manufacturing excluding motor vehicle production rose a healthy 0.5%. This includes strong growth in consumer goods excluding motor vehicles, which jumped 0.3%.

There is a drawback to the strong production numbers. We have not seen orders for manufactured goods pick up. If orders stay low we could end up with a big increase in manufacturer inventories. This would cause manufacturers to pull back on their production. If this scenario occurs, manufacturing production will see a "double-dip" as production rises today and quickly falls back in a few months.

Ok, we know from the recent spat of "good" earnings that production is up, but as we discussed this will be negative down the road if consumers don't wake up.

How is the consumer doing...? Briefing: October University of Michigan Sentiment-prelim 69.4 vs 73.3 consensus. This was a bad miss and could spell trouble. Again I will say, this is good for stock market investing.

One reason for this bad Michigan number may be related to the on going problems in real estate as evidenced by this Fitch story...

Fitch Sees 60% of Current RMBS Borrowers Underwater

"The majority — 60% — of remaining performing borrowers within ‘06- and ‘07-vintage residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) bear negative home equity, meaning they are underwater on their mortgages and owe more than their houses are worth.The rating agency noted the number of non-agency borrowers 90 plus days delinquent reached 1.66m in September — the highest level on record. The rating agency expects US unemployment to peak at 10.3% in the middle of next year, further pressuring current borrowers. House prices will ultimately decline another 10% over the next year."

What has been the Fed's response to all these tea leaves? Read on...
Fed's Fisher says keep rates low, inflation not a risk - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the U.S. economy is recovering but the upturn will be slow and it makes no sense to raise interest rates in this climate since inflation is not a risk, a top Federal Reserve official said.(I humbly suggest someone clue in Fisher to the reality that (all together now) Inflation is a currency event, not an economic event.)

"I am worried about unemployment and I see an enormous amount of slack. I hear it everywhere," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher told Reuters in an interview. "I am super-hawkish on inflation. I don't think that is where the risks are right now," Fisher said.

His comments will reinforce the impression that the U.S. central bank is in no hurry to raise interest rates, despite guarded optimism that the U.S. economy is healing. Fisher, who takes pride in a reputation as an anti- inflation policy hawk, said the U.S. central bank would not lose sight of its long-term obligation to keep price pressures at bay. But he stressed that this was not the current issue. "Right now that is not the risk. The risk is a disinflationary/deflationary risk," he said...

Fisher, who is not a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee this year, said it would take "a while" to work off excess capacity in the economy. "I don't see a 'V'-shaped recovery. I see a couple of quarters of growth and then the question is where do we go from there. That is the real key question in 2010 and 2011."

Inflation, Hyperinflation, Stagflation and the Investment Strategy to Benefit, Richard Russell, Fed's Lacker, Credit Tightens, Banks Sift Reserves

Welcome back, today we will continue our discussion about the inflation/hyperinflation/ stagflation trade. In my last post I illustrated how the important news stories of last week clearly unveiled the footprint of the inflation trade. You may recall that I ended with the familiar refrain: "Inflation (particularly hyperinflation) is a currency event, not an economic event."

Therefore, the investment strategy required to profit in this environment is one that begins with the close monitoring of the U.S.$ and ends with the investment in assets that appreciate in value when the U.S.$ suffers.

What is the number one asset we expect to benefit from this developing trend? I will pause here and allow long time readers, clients of RCM, and partners of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds the chance to shout in unison...GOLD! And as Ed McMahon used to say, "Yes, you are correct!"

With the above investment strategy in mind, I would like to continue our journey following the footprints with a recent word from a respected investment professional. One who has vast experience and in a succinct manner uses his success through the years to impart some valuable wisdom...

The Sage, Richard Russell: "...What happens next is that the cheap dollar is dumped on the market in huge quantities. When any currency or any item is created in massive quantities, that item must fall in value. And the dollar is falling. Ah, Professor Bernanke, what do you do now? To make a currency more attractive, you raise the rates that it pays. But raise the Fed Funds and you squeeze that already gasping US economy. Also, when you raise rates you raise the cost of carrying the gigantic US debt. Total public and private debt in the US is around $57 trillion. A one percent rise in interest rates would drain $500 billion each year out of the US economy...."

Well said! So what are the Fed members saying this week? Is there a will to raise rates...?

Fed's Lacker says he doesn't: "think we should tighten policy today"; willing to go along with purchasing full amount of long-term securities purchases for now...Seeing rise in losses from commercial real estate lending, likely to continue for a while...

No, there is no will to raise rates and to make matters worse the bulk of the commercial real estate tragedy has yet to unfold. In fact, the tentacles of the commercial real estate problem are winding around the neck of small businesses. Without small and midsize businesses recovering, unemployment will continue to get worse further impeding the Fed's ability to raise rates...

Credit tightens for small businesses - NY Times reports many small and midsize American businesses are still struggling to secure bank loans, impeding their expansion plans and constraining overall economic growth, even as the country tentatively rises from its recessionary depths.

Most banks expect their lending standards to remain tighter than the levels of the last decade until at least the middle of 2010, according to a survey of senior loan officers conducted by the Federal Reserve Board. The enduring credit squeeze appears to reflect an aversion to risk among lenders confronting great uncertainty about the economy rather than any lingering effects of the panic that gripped financial markets last fall, after the collapse of the investment banking giant Lehman Brothers. Bankers worry about the extent of losses on credit card businesses as high unemployment sends cardholders into trouble.

They are also reckoning with anticipated failures in commercial real estate. Until the scope of these losses is known, many lenders are inclined to hang on to their dollars rather than risk them on loans to businesses in a weak economy, say economists and financial industry executives.

These developments are all U.S.$ bearish. Central bankers around the world see the writing on the wall and are moving towards the exits...

Dollar reaches breaking point as banks shift reserves - Bloomberg.com Bloomberg.com reports central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two- quarter rout in almost two decades.

Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63% of the new cash into euros and yen in April, May and June, the latest Barclays Capital data show. That's the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase... The diversification signals that the currency won't rebound anytime soon after losing 10.3% on a trade-weighted basis the past six months, the biggest drop since 1991.

Meanwhile, the price of Gold has advanced roughly 22% since the beginning of the year. Our hedge fund, Fortune's Favor Precious Metals, has exceeded the performance of gold year to date. You can review our investment philosophy as well as the quarterly and annual returns on our website: http://www.rosenthalcapital.com/.

I have received many questions recently about the sustainability of the precious metals move higher. As Gold took out the $1,000 level a menagerie of analysts and letter writers wrote of the impending doom of the Gold rally. As Gold moves above $1,050, I hear countless tales of certain failure, of commercial shorts winning the day. I LOVE THIS TALK! This type of bearishness is typical of continued momentum higher.

To sum up, I will simply reprint the headline from a recent Barron's story: Gold Is Still a Lousy Investment By Dave Kansas. Need I say more?

Until next time, chew on this:

"It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare; it is because we do not dare that they are difficult." Seneca, philosopher

The Inflation Trade, Alcoa EPS, Obama's New Stimulus Plan, Australia's Interest Rate Increase, Commercial Real Estate Woes

Today we are going to follow the footprints of the hyper-inflation/stagflation trade that I have been writing so much about. By simply understanding the impact of the important news stories and avoiding the noise of the traditional media outlets, tracking our quarry will be relatively easy.

Footprint number one: Alcoa has a much better than expected earnings number. However, the key takeaway here is not that a 33.8% decline y0y was better than analysts thought. The gem in this story is that Alcoa beat expectations because of rising prices. Revenues beat expectations because the price of the commodity is rising. We call this little phenomenon INFLATION.

AA Alcoa beats by $0.13, beats on revs (14.20 +0.31)
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.04 per share, excluding restructuring and non-recurring items, $0.13 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.09); revenues fell 33.8% year/year to $4.62 bln vs the $4.55 bln consensus. Sequentially, revenues were helped by an increase in realized prices for primary aluminum to $1,972 per metric ton from $1,667 per metric ton in the second quarter, as well as stabilization in the end markets. Co reports cash sustainability are exceeding targets. "In the second half of 2009, there are signs that key markets the Company operates in are stabilizing. Due to low inventories at distributors and rising shipments, regional premiums are improving and global aluminum consumption is expected to increase 11% in the second half of 2009." (Stock is halted.)

Footprint number two: The administration recognizes the economic recovery is in trouble and is preparing another stimulus package. So, we have rising commodity prices and no economic recovery. This combination is called STAGFLATION.

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama is considering a mix of spending programs and tax cuts to respond to widening job losses that would amount to an additional economic stimulus without carrying that label. Read More

Footprint number three: The commodity based economy of Australia heats up and its central bank raises rates. This morsel of a development will have a significant impact on the value of the U.S.$ going forward. The Australian announcement obviously strengthens our case for higher commodity prices and in turn inflation, but the real important consequence of the move will be its influence on the carry trade. The currency of choice for the carry traders of the world is now the U.S.$.

In years past the Japanese Yen was the whipping boy of the currency carry trade as traders sold Yen and bought U.S. treasuries or other assets to benefit from the spread in interest rates. Now, with interest rates held down by the Fed, carry traders can sell U.S. dollars and invest in, for instance, Australian government debt and profit on the interest rate spread. This trade also benefits as the Aussi $ goes up in value versus the U.S.$. As you can see, this behavior begins to feed on itself. The more U.S.$ sold and Aussi bonds bought with Aussi $s the faster the value of one currency goes down while the other goes up adding to the profits of the trade. The result is a progressively weakening U.S.$ leading to a nasty little thing called HYPER-INFLATION.

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's central bank raised its key cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent on Tuesday and heralded more to come, saying it was safe to row-back on stimulus now that the worst danger for the economy had passed. The Australian dollar jumped to a 14-month high and interbank futures slid as investors rushed to price in at least one more hike by Christmas, and rates above 4 percent in a year. Read More

Why don't the powers that be do something to prevent the tsunami of U.S.$ selling you ask? Well, their hands are tied as the story below illustrates. With commercial real estate teetering on the brink, an increase in interest rates is out of the question. You can forget all the verbal attempts the Fed and Treasury secretary Pinocchio (Geithner) make to support the greenback.
Fed frets about commercial real estate - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports banks in the U.S. "are slow" to take losses on their commercial real-estate loans being battered by slumping property values and rental payments, according to a Federal Reserve presentation to banking regulators last month. The remarks suggest that banking regulators are girding for a rerun of the housing-related losses now slamming thousands of banks that failed to set aside enough capital during the boom to cushion themselves when the bubble burst.

"Banks will be slow to recognize the severity of the loss -- just as they were in residential," according to the Fed presentation, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. A Fed official confirmed the authenticity of the document, prepared by an Atlanta Fed real-estate expert who is part of the central bank's Rapid Response program to spread information about emerging problem areas to federal and state banking examiners throughout the U.S. I

In another sign that many U.S. financial institutions are inadequately protected against potential losses on commercial real-estate loans, banks with heavy exposure to such loans set aside just 38 cents in reserves during the second quarter for every $1 in bad loans, according to an analysis of regulatory filings by The Wall Street Journal. That is a sharp decline from $1.58 in reserves for every $1 in bad loans from the beginning of 2007. The Journal's analysis includes more than 800 banks that reported having more half of their loans tied up in commercial real-estate, ranging from apartments to office buildings to warehouses.
Tune in next time for a discussion on the best way for an investment portfolio to benefit from the scenario discussed above....

Gold Hits New High, U.S.$ Approaches New Low, Nouriel Roubini Rants, Geithner and Lamont Looking Similiar, Saudi Central Bank Denies Replacement $

Gold breaks out to a new high up 2.4%, Silver up 4.36%, the equity markets are up over 1.5%, and the U.S.$ is down another .66%. The inflation trade is alive and well.

I would like to begin with a quick comment on Nouriel. I have reprinted the essence of his most recent comments for your perusal:

Nouriel Roubini appears on CNBC discussing his weekend comments about stocks rising "too much, too soon"
Says there are several reasons the recovery is going to be anemic: 1) the labor market is just awful; 2) the consumer is shopped out, saving more and consuming less; 3) there is a glut of capacity; 4) the financial system is damaged with limited credit growth; 5) fiscal stimulus will become a drag by next year; and finally, overspending countries like the U.S. are spending less while spending in oversaving countries is not picking up.

While I agree with his thoughts on the economy, I feel we should avoid placing any weight behind his stock market call for three reasons:

1. The media loves to cheer Nouriel for his historic bear call on the markets last year. But you see, that's the problem, the call is history. Now, every time the markets fall for a week or two the media trouts out Roubini for another "Dr. Doom" market call. What they don't tell you is that he has felt the same way all year and yet the market has rallied. Point being, how helpful has his market opinion been this year?
   
2. I fear Roubini may join a long list of pundits who get it right once and make a career out of the call but they don't help your investment career going forward. Anyone remember Elaine Garzarelli? She called the 1987 crash right and nothing else since. Or, how about Ralph Acampora and Abby Cohen? They called the bull market right at the turn of the century and had every financial network scrambling for a sound bite right at the top. Where are they now? The markets collapsed and they missed the call so Ralph loses his job and Abby gets shuffled. You see, inherent in every right market call are the seeds for failure on the next call. Successful tools that help during one market environment may not necessarily help when the environment changes and the hubris that inevitably infiltrates the minds of these "correct" pundits clouds their ability to spot the change. It is only human nature and happens to the best of us. I'm simply saying beware.
   
3. The driving force behind the equity market rally may, in fact, be something other than the economic turn around and if so then Roubini's call will be based on the wrong issues. As I have stated many times over the last few months, we believe this market rally is building momentum because of the inflation trade (please see the Sept. 7th post for details). Roubini's call for economic trouble plays right into our inflation trade theory and is the impetus for higher, not lower, equity prices. Those of you who are subscribers to this blog know the familiar refrain: Inflation is a currency event not an economic event. The more negative economic numbers come out, the longer easy credit will flow, the more the Fed will monetize U.S. debt and the U.S. $ will continue to weaken. This progression leads to an ever increasing exodus out of the U.S.$ into hard assets and equities that benefit from inflation or have a growth rate much greater than inflation.

Since, inflation is a currency event not an economic event, it behooves us to keep our collective eyes on the greenback. By closely monitoring the developments involving the U.S.$ we may glean some valuable insight into the direction of both the commodity and equity markets....

UUP U.S. Dollar loses ground to Euro - WSJ WSJ reports the 16-nation euro rose Monday against the U.S. dollar despite attempts over the weekend to boost the strength of the American currency. The euro bought $1.4648 in morning European trading, up from $1.4588 late Friday in New York. The British pound rose to $1.6010 from $1.5919 in New York, while the dollar rose slightly to purchase 89.77 Japanese yen from 89.63 late Friday.

The dollar weakness came even after finance ministers from the Group of Seven wealthy nations talked up the currency amid fears it could fall farther and disrupt the global economy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and France's Christine Lagarde stressed the need for a strong dollar. Mr. Geithner said it's "very important for the U.S. that we continue to have a strong dollar," while Ms. Lagarde said "we need to have a strong dollar .. volatility is not welcome."

...When world leaders assemble to talk about supporting a currency and the currency breaks down anyway often an inflection point is rapidly approaching. During the collapse of the British Pound in 1992, British central bankers repeatedly stressed the desire for a strong currency much like "Pinocchio", I mean Geithner, has over these many months.

Norman Lamont was the British "Pinocchio" from 1990 -93. He famously announced he would borrow $15 billion to defend Sterling right before the ultimate devaluation of the currency. At the time George Soros was short $11 billion worth of the Pound sterling and pocketed a cool $1 billion on the day of the devaluation. I only wonder what Geithner will say right before the ultimate fall? (Click for Soros' opinion on the U.S.$ today)

I love the smell of fresh denial in the morning....

Saudi central bank says report on replacing dollar is wrong - Reuters Reuters reports newspaper report that Gulf Arab states are in secret talks to replace the U.S. dollar in the trading of oil is wrong, Saudi Arabia's central bank chief said on Tuesday. Asked by reporters about the story in Britain's The Independent, Muhammad al-Jasser said: "Absolutely incorrect." Asked whether Saudi Arabia was in such talks, he replied: "Absolutely not." The Independent quoted unidentified sources as saying Gulf Arab states were in secret talks with Russia, China, Japan and France to replace the U.S. dollar with a basket of currencies in the trading of oil.

Employment Report Weakness, Fed's Pianalto & Rosengren Dovish Statements, Credit Markets Don't Confirm Sell Off

The economic news continues to be terrible. The knee jerk reaction; sell off the equity markets run into U.S. treasuries. This type of action would only make sense to the person who ran directly from his cabin into the galley on the Titanic and felt he had gained safety. Furthermore, this fatuous trade into T-bonds has place a brainless bid into the U.S.$.

Allow me to be extremely clear, the worse the economic numbers are the more stimulus will be needed leading to an even bigger debt burden. This is ultimately not good for T-bond prices. However, when T-bond prices ultimately collapse is not easy to foresee because of Fed intervention. On the other hand, for the U.S.$ the picture is vivid. Negative economic news means further Fed intervention which strengthens the case for an even weaker U.S.$....

ECONX Employment Report Weakens Significantly
The employment report came in worse than expected in September. The consensus expected the labor situation to improve and projected payrolls to decline by only 175,000. Instead of an improvement, payrolls fell 263,000 -- worse than even the ADP employment report projected.

The unemployment rate declined 0.1 percentage points to 9.8%, exactly what the consensus was expecting. However, the unemployment rate is very misleading. The civilian labor force declined 571,000 in September compared to an increase in the labor force of 73,000 in August. If the labor force held steady in September, the unemployment rate would have increased to 10.2%! ...

Total private weekly hours worked declined 0.1 hours to 33.0, below the consensus expectation of 33.1. Further, hourly pay only increased 0.1%, also below consensus expectations. The drop in hours worked and the lack of a strong increase in pay pushed weekly earnings down 0.2% and will lead to lower consumption from people that have maintained their jobs over the last month...

Looking at the payrolls a little more closely, there is no sign of an improvement in employment in the near future. Government payrolls declined 53,000 as state and local government budget cuts forced out workers. Construction and manufacturing employment declined by a combined 115,000. Service-providing firms shed 147,000 jobs as retail trade lost 39,000 jobs, business and professional service lost 8,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality employment declined 9,000. Only the education and health service sector posted positive employment gains, but the increase was extremely small with only 3,000 new jobs.

...So, after a week of hawkish comments from various Fed governors what do we hear in the wake of these negative economic numbers? Don't forget, the G20 meeting is now a distant memory....

Fed's Pianalto says pace of Fed pullback depends on how econ conditions unfold - DJ

DJ reports the pace at which the Federal Reserve will withdraw its support from the economy when the time is right depends on how economic conditions evolve, said Sandra Pianalto, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Responding to audience questions after delivering prepared remarks at the Down Town Association in New York, Pianalto reiterated her view that the Fed's current accommodative policy is appropriate, and said that at this point it is difficult to determine just how fast the Fed will eventually remove its easy policy. "It's going to rely on how economic conditions unfold," she said. "We'll continue to monitor how economic conditions unfold and then act appropriately." Pianalto reiterated comments from her prepared remarks that she anticipates a gradual recovery and bumps along the road. She said she hopes "they're just bumps and not shocks," because "another shock could be very detrimental."

Fed's Rosengren says Fed will stay until clear econ can keep improving without help - DJ
Rosengren says expects to see positive growth in Q3, Q4

...All of the above thoughts lead us to the obvious question: what is next for the equity markets? Is the sell off on the negative news a beginning of an October rout or simply another normal retracement? Well, we will of course need to monitor the uptrend and see if support holds. However, for now I will simply comment that the credit markets are not confirming the weakness in equities as of yet. Mike Johnson form M.S. Howells says it best when he wrote this morning....


....Credit sell-off confirmation is nearly non-existent. TARP-Supported Preferred Equity Index (TSPEI) was only down 0.05% on Thursday with KEY, JPM, HBAN, GS, BK, C, and USB preferred equity members all posting gains. Given the low after tax cost of debt financing and the minuscule returns available to executives hoarding cash, we expect to see an increase in the number of executives announcing new debt-financed equity buybacks this earnings season.